Profit/Loss
Past Day

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
12.5¢
13.5¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
4.4¢
5.3¢

Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?

Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
50.5¢
10.5¢

Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?

Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
5.9¢
2.7¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
11.1¢
8.5¢

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
16.8¢
14.5¢

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
27.2¢
24.5¢

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
9¢
6.5¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
18.9¢
16.5¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
15.2¢
9.5¢

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
17.3¢
15¢

Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
71¢
38.5¢

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
2.4¢
1.2¢

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
10.5¢
2.7¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
0.9¢
1.1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
34.7¢
13¢

Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
71.7¢
0.4¢

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0.9¢
0.4¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
