Congressional passage of a $1.2 trillion spending package on March 22—signed into law by President Biden on March 23—has driven trader consensus to 80.5% odds on the DHS shutdown ending before April 1, averting a broader government shutdown and providing full-year funding for the Department of Homeland Security through September 30. Bipartisan negotiations between House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Appropriations Committee leaders resolved prior disputes over spending cuts and policy riders, shifting probabilities sharply away from mid- and late-April outcomes amid successful floor votes in both chambers. With no immediate funding cliffs ahead, the wisdom of crowds prices in minimal risk of lapse, though debt ceiling talks loom later in spring.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4月1日之前 80%
4月17日至20日 4%
4月30日之后 3.5%
4月13日至16日 3.0%
$43,264 交易量
$43,264 交易量
4月1日之前
80%
4月1日至4日
2%
4月5日至8日
2%
4月9日至12日
3%
4月13日至16日
3%
4月17日至20日
4%
4月21日至24日
2%
4月25日至28日
2%
4月29日至30日
2%
4月30日之后
4%
4月1日之前 80%
4月17日至20日 4%
4月30日之后 3.5%
4月13日至16日 3.0%
$43,264 交易量
$43,264 交易量
4月1日之前
80%
4月1日至4日
2%
4月5日至8日
2%
4月9日至12日
3%
4月13日至16日
3%
4月17日至20日
4%
4月21日至24日
2%
4月25日至28日
2%
4月29日至30日
2%
4月30日之后
4%
The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间: Mar 25, 2026, 9:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Congressional passage of a $1.2 trillion spending package on March 22—signed into law by President Biden on March 23—has driven trader consensus to 80.5% odds on the DHS shutdown ending before April 1, averting a broader government shutdown and providing full-year funding for the Department of Homeland Security through September 30. Bipartisan negotiations between House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Appropriations Committee leaders resolved prior disputes over spending cuts and policy riders, shifting probabilities sharply away from mid- and late-April outcomes amid successful floor votes in both chambers. With no immediate funding cliffs ahead, the wisdom of crowds prices in minimal risk of lapse, though debt ceiling talks loom later in spring.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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