Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% chance the DHS shutdown ends before April 1, reflecting optimism from recent bipartisan talks on a continuing resolution to extend government funding past the March 31 appropriations deadline affecting DHS operations like border security and immigration enforcement. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate leaders advanced a framework deal this week amid pressure to avert a partial shutdown, with key holdouts on spending cuts and policy riders narrowing after White House meetings. Lower odds for mid-April windows (e.g., 17.5% for April 5-8) account for potential delays from floor votes, amendments, or debt ceiling complications, though historical patterns favor short-term CRs over prolonged closures. Upcoming House and Senate votes this week could shift probabilities rapidly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4月1日之前 42%
4月21日至24日 10%
4月13日至16日 9%
4月1日至4日 9%
$37,654 交易量
$37,654 交易量
4月1日之前
42%
4月1日至4日
9%
4月5日至8日
15%
4月9日至12日
7%
4月13日至16日
9%
4月17日至20日
7%
4月21日至24日
10%
4月25日至28日
6%
4月29日至30日
7%
4月30日之后
8%
4月1日之前 42%
4月21日至24日 10%
4月13日至16日 9%
4月1日至4日 9%
$37,654 交易量
$37,654 交易量
4月1日之前
42%
4月1日至4日
9%
4月5日至8日
15%
4月9日至12日
7%
4月13日至16日
9%
4月17日至20日
7%
4月21日至24日
10%
4月25日至28日
6%
4月29日至30日
7%
4月30日之后
8%
The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间: Mar 25, 2026, 9:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% chance the DHS shutdown ends before April 1, reflecting optimism from recent bipartisan talks on a continuing resolution to extend government funding past the March 31 appropriations deadline affecting DHS operations like border security and immigration enforcement. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate leaders advanced a framework deal this week amid pressure to avert a partial shutdown, with key holdouts on spending cuts and policy riders narrowing after White House meetings. Lower odds for mid-April windows (e.g., 17.5% for April 5-8) account for potential delays from floor votes, amendments, or debt ceiling complications, though historical patterns favor short-term CRs over prolonged closures. Upcoming House and Senate votes this week could shift probabilities rapidly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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