Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Fátima Tardío as the virtual certainty to win the Sucre mayoral election in Bolivia's Chuquisaca department, reflecting official results from the March 2021 municipal vote where her MAS party slate secured over 50% of the vote amid low turnout and opposition fragmentation. Her commanding lead stems from strong rural support, incumbent advantages, and rivals like Richard Moscoso and Cristian Sanabria splitting anti-MAS votes. Recent Tribunal Electoral certification has locked in her victory, with minimal post-election disputes. Realistic challenges would require substantiated fraud claims triggering a recount or Supreme Electoral Tribunal intervention, though no credible evidence has emerged to shift probabilities.