Amid escalating military actions in the US-Iran war, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces have enforced a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil transits—by successfully striking vessels attempting unauthorized passage, including a Thai container ship on March 27 and a US vessel near Oman. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate attacks on at least two civilian ships around March 24. On March 28, Iran hit Oman's Salalah port, prompting Maersk to suspend operations, while Houthis launched their first ballistic missile barrage at Israel since the conflict began, threatening renewed Red Sea disruptions. President Trump extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, with US CENTCOM reporting over 8,000 strikes on Iranian targets; coalition naval patrols and Houthi responses remain key variables.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
13%
April 2
16%
April 3
14%
April 4
13%
April 5
14%
April 6
13%
April 7
14%
April 8
15%
April 9
16%
April 10
20%
$284 交易量
April 1
$26 交易量
13%
April 2
$28 交易量
16%
April 3
$76 交易量
14%
April 4
$11 交易量
13%
April 5
$26 交易量
14%
April 6
$80 交易量
13%
April 7
$0 交易量
14%
April 8
$0 交易量
15%
April 9
$11 交易量
16%
April 10
$26 交易量
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating military actions in the US-Iran war, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces have enforced a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil transits—by successfully striking vessels attempting unauthorized passage, including a Thai container ship on March 27 and a US vessel near Oman. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate attacks on at least two civilian ships around March 24. On March 28, Iran hit Oman's Salalah port, prompting Maersk to suspend operations, while Houthis launched their first ballistic missile barrage at Israel since the conflict began, threatening renewed Red Sea disruptions. President Trump extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, with US CENTCOM reporting over 8,000 strikes on Iranian targets; coalition naval patrols and Houthi responses remain key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
交易量
$284结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating military actions in the US-Iran war, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces have enforced a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil transits—by successfully striking vessels attempting unauthorized passage, including a Thai container ship on March 27 and a US vessel near Oman. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate attacks on at least two civilian ships around March 24. On March 28, Iran hit Oman's Salalah port, prompting Maersk to suspend operations, while Houthis launched their first ballistic missile barrage at Israel since the conflict began, threatening renewed Red Sea disruptions. President Trump extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, with US CENTCOM reporting over 8,000 strikes on Iranian targets; coalition naval patrols and Houthi responses remain key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$284结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating military actions in the US-Iran war, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces have enforced a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil transits—by successfully striking vessels attempting unauthorized passage, including a Thai container ship on March 27 and a US vessel near Oman. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate attacks on at least two civilian ships around March 24. On March 28, Iran hit Oman's Salalah port, prompting Maersk to suspend operations, while Houthis launched their first ballistic missile barrage at Israel since the conflict began, threatening renewed Red Sea disruptions. President Trump extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, with US CENTCOM reporting over 8,000 strikes on Iranian targets; coalition naval patrols and Houthi responses remain key variables.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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