A partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, triggered by congressional impasse over immigration enforcement funding in the FY2026 appropriations, began February 14, 2026, and has now exceeded 65 days—the longest on record—driving trader consensus toward prolonged duration with 70+ days priced at 89% implied probability. Recent House reluctance under Speaker Johnson to advance a Senate-passed stopgap bill, despite growing GOP frustration and operational strains like CISA cyber planning delays and Coast Guard unpaid bills reported in hearings two days ago, sustains the deadlock. Republicans eye reconciliation to bypass filibuster for multi-year ICE and CBP funding, but uncertain House votes and Democratic opposition signal high risk of extension past April 24, absent breakthrough negotiations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,438,474 交易量
$1,438,474 交易量
2026-03-14
70天以上
93%
80天以上
83%
90天以上
70%
100天以上
28%
110天以上
23%
120+天
50%
$1,438,474 交易量
$1,438,474 交易量
2026-03-14
70天以上
$31,448 交易量
93%
80天以上
$32,427 交易量
83%
90天以上
$39,277 交易量
70%
100天以上
$173 交易量
28%
110天以上
$90 交易量
23%
120+天
$200 交易量
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.A partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, triggered by congressional impasse over immigration enforcement funding in the FY2026 appropriations, began February 14, 2026, and has now exceeded 65 days—the longest on record—driving trader consensus toward prolonged duration with 70+ days priced at 89% implied probability. Recent House reluctance under Speaker Johnson to advance a Senate-passed stopgap bill, despite growing GOP frustration and operational strains like CISA cyber planning delays and Coast Guard unpaid bills reported in hearings two days ago, sustains the deadlock. Republicans eye reconciliation to bypass filibuster for multi-year ICE and CBP funding, but uncertain House votes and Democratic opposition signal high risk of extension past April 24, absent breakthrough negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 15, 2026, 2:07 PM ET
交易量
$1,438,474结束日期
2026-03-14市场开放时间
Feb 15, 2026, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.A partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, triggered by congressional impasse over immigration enforcement funding in the FY2026 appropriations, began February 14, 2026, and has now exceeded 65 days—the longest on record—driving trader consensus toward prolonged duration with 70+ days priced at 89% implied probability. Recent House reluctance under Speaker Johnson to advance a Senate-passed stopgap bill, despite growing GOP frustration and operational strains like CISA cyber planning delays and Coast Guard unpaid bills reported in hearings two days ago, sustains the deadlock. Republicans eye reconciliation to bypass filibuster for multi-year ICE and CBP funding, but uncertain House votes and Democratic opposition signal high risk of extension past April 24, absent breakthrough negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,438,474结束日期
2026-03-14市场开放时间
Feb 15, 2026, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
A partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, triggered by congressional impasse over immigration enforcement funding in the FY2026 appropriations, began February 14, 2026, and has now exceeded 65 days—the longest on record—driving trader consensus toward prolonged duration with 70+ days priced at 89% implied probability. Recent House reluctance under Speaker Johnson to advance a Senate-passed stopgap bill, despite growing GOP frustration and operational strains like CISA cyber planning delays and Coast Guard unpaid bills reported in hearings two days ago, sustains the deadlock. Republicans eye reconciliation to bypass filibuster for multi-year ICE and CBP funding, but uncertain House votes and Democratic opposition signal high risk of extension past April 24, absent breakthrough negotiations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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