Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen top the trader consensus at 36.9% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026, propelled by their dominant UMK national selection victory on February 28 with "Liekinheitin"—a rock-classical-dance fusion that crushed rivals by nearly triple the points and now leads bookmakers and prediction models like The Model. France's Monroe follows at 12.6% on strong jury favoritism for "Regarde" and direct Grand Final qualification as a Big Five nation, boosted by a standout live performance last week. Denmark's Torpegaard Lund holds 10.8% amid solid OGAE poll support, while Greece edges up to 6.6% on rising televote buzz. Today's semi-final running order reveal—Finland slotted advantageously in Semi-Final 1—adds qualification stakes, with Vienna semis on May 12-14 heightening volatility as more entries lock in.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年欧洲电视网冠军
2026年欧洲电视网冠军
芬兰 36.9%
法国 12.6%
丹麦 10.8%
希腊 6.6%
$57,824,737 交易量
$57,824,737 交易量
芬兰
37%
法国
13%
丹麦
11%
希腊
7%
澳大利亚
6%
以色列
4%
乌克兰
3%
瑞典
3%
意大利
2%
罗马尼亚
2%
捷克
1%
塞浦路斯
1%
马耳他
1%
保加利亚
1%
德国
1%
立陶宛
1%
比利时
1%
克罗地亚
1%
卢森堡
1%
摩尔多瓦
1%
挪威
1%
瑞士
1%
英国
1%
阿尔巴尼亚
<1%
奥地利
<1%
爱沙尼亚
<1%
拉脱维亚
<1%
圣马力诺
<1%
亚美尼亚
<1%
阿塞拜疆
<1%
格鲁吉亚
<1%
黑山
<1%
波兰
<1%
塞尔维亚
<1%
葡萄牙
<1%
芬兰 36.9%
法国 12.6%
丹麦 10.8%
希腊 6.6%
$57,824,737 交易量
$57,824,737 交易量
芬兰
37%
法国
13%
丹麦
11%
希腊
7%
澳大利亚
6%
以色列
4%
乌克兰
3%
瑞典
3%
意大利
2%
罗马尼亚
2%
捷克
1%
塞浦路斯
1%
马耳他
1%
保加利亚
1%
德国
1%
立陶宛
1%
比利时
1%
克罗地亚
1%
卢森堡
1%
摩尔多瓦
1%
挪威
1%
瑞士
1%
英国
1%
阿尔巴尼亚
<1%
奥地利
<1%
爱沙尼亚
<1%
拉脱维亚
<1%
圣马力诺
<1%
亚美尼亚
<1%
阿塞拜疆
<1%
格鲁吉亚
<1%
黑山
<1%
波兰
<1%
塞尔维亚
<1%
葡萄牙
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
市场开放时间： Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen top the trader consensus at 36.9% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026, propelled by their dominant UMK national selection victory on February 28 with "Liekinheitin"—a rock-classical-dance fusion that crushed rivals by nearly triple the points and now leads bookmakers and prediction models like The Model. France's Monroe follows at 12.6% on strong jury favoritism for "Regarde" and direct Grand Final qualification as a Big Five nation, boosted by a standout live performance last week. Denmark's Torpegaard Lund holds 10.8% amid solid OGAE poll support, while Greece edges up to 6.6% on rising televote buzz. Today's semi-final running order reveal—Finland slotted advantageously in Semi-Final 1—adds qualification stakes, with Vienna semis on May 12-14 heightening volatility as more entries lock in.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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