Market icon
地緣政治·以色列x伊朗

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Market icon
地緣政治·以色列x伊朗

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

$79,890 交易量

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$79,890 交易量

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

$37,708 交易量

26%

UAE

$15,611 交易量

22%

Kuwait

$1,060 交易量

8%

Qatar

$273 交易量

7%

Bahrain

$356 交易量

6%

Any E.U. Country

$2,391 交易量

6%

Jordan

$868 交易量

6%

UK

$15,680 交易量

6%

France

$3,676 交易量

5%

Turkey

$240 交易量

5%

Oman

$249 交易量

4%

Germany

$1,778 交易量

3%

Canada

$0 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's targeted airstrike on an Iranian air defense site near Isfahan on April 19 remains the sole direct military action against Iran since Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel, which prompted defensive interceptions by the US, UK, France, and Jordan without offensive strikes on Iranian soil. President Biden has emphasized restraint to prevent regional escalation, while Iranian leaders have signaled de-escalation and downplayed the incident amid ongoing nuclear negotiations and proxy conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. With the April 30 deadline nearing and no major escalatory events scheduled, trader consensus reflects diplomatic pressures and mutual deterrence outweighing further retaliation risks from additional countries.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$79,890
結束日期
Apr 30, 2026
市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's targeted airstrike on an Iranian air defense site near Isfahan on April 19 remains the sole direct military action against Iran since Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel, which prompted defensive interceptions by the US, UK, France, and Jordan without offensive strikes on Iranian soil. President Biden has emphasized restraint to prevent regional escalation, while Iranian leaders have signaled de-escalation and downplayed the incident amid ongoing nuclear negotiations and proxy conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. With the April 30 deadline nearing and no major escalatory events scheduled, trader consensus reflects diplomatic pressures and mutual deterrence outweighing further retaliation risks from additional countries.

Israel's targeted airstrike on an Iranian air defense site near Isfahan on April 19 remains the sole direct military action against Iran since Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel, which prompted defensive interceptions by the US, UK, France, and Jordan without offensive strikes on Iranian soil. President Biden has emphasized restraint to prevent regional escalation, while Iranian leaders have signaled de-escalation and downplayed the incident amid ongoing nuclear negotiations and proxy conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. With the April 30 deadline nearing and no major escalatory events scheduled, trader consensus reflects diplomatic pressures and mutual deterrence outweighing further retaliation risks from additional countries.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Saudi Arabia" at 26%, followed by "UAE" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" has generated $79.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" is "Saudi Arabia" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "UAE" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.