US and Israel launched a major joint airstrike campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, air defenses, and leadership—including the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—marking the onset of open conflict now in its fourth week. Israel conducted fresh airstrikes on Iran's Arak heavy-water plant and other nuclear infrastructure as recently as March 28, prompting vows of revenge from the IRGC and retaliatory missile barrages from Iran alongside Houthi attacks on Israel. UK, France, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and others have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles defensively, with the US using RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia bases, but no confirmed offensive strikes by additional countries. White House signals progress toward core objectives amid UN calls for de-escalation, though proxy escalations and potential Gulf responses could draw in more actors before April 30 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$109,755 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
26%
UAE
23%
Bahrain
8%
Kuwait
7%
UK
6%
Jordan
6%
Qatar
6%
France
6%
Any E.U. Country
6%
Turkey
5%
Oman
4%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$109,755 交易量
Saudi Arabia
$53,727 交易量
26%
UAE
$25,076 交易量
23%
Bahrain
$490 交易量
8%
Kuwait
$1,183 交易量
7%
UK
$17,627 交易量
6%
Jordan
$898 交易量
6%
Qatar
$415 交易量
6%
France
$3,966 交易量
6%
Any E.U. Country
$2,929 交易量
6%
Turkey
$824 交易量
5%
Oman
$318 交易量
4%
Germany
$2,337 交易量
3%
Canada
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel launched a major joint airstrike campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, air defenses, and leadership—including the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—marking the onset of open conflict now in its fourth week. Israel conducted fresh airstrikes on Iran's Arak heavy-water plant and other nuclear infrastructure as recently as March 28, prompting vows of revenge from the IRGC and retaliatory missile barrages from Iran alongside Houthi attacks on Israel. UK, France, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and others have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles defensively, with the US using RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia bases, but no confirmed offensive strikes by additional countries. White House signals progress toward core objectives amid UN calls for de-escalation, though proxy escalations and potential Gulf responses could draw in more actors before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
交易量
$109,755結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel launched a major joint airstrike campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, air defenses, and leadership—including the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—marking the onset of open conflict now in its fourth week. Israel conducted fresh airstrikes on Iran's Arak heavy-water plant and other nuclear infrastructure as recently as March 28, prompting vows of revenge from the IRGC and retaliatory missile barrages from Iran alongside Houthi attacks on Israel. UK, France, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and others have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles defensively, with the US using RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia bases, but no confirmed offensive strikes by additional countries. White House signals progress toward core objectives amid UN calls for de-escalation, though proxy escalations and potential Gulf responses could draw in more actors before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$109,755結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel launched a major joint airstrike campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, air defenses, and leadership—including the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—marking the onset of open conflict now in its fourth week. Israel conducted fresh airstrikes on Iran's Arak heavy-water plant and other nuclear infrastructure as recently as March 28, prompting vows of revenge from the IRGC and retaliatory missile barrages from Iran alongside Houthi attacks on Israel. UK, France, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and others have intercepted Iranian drones and missiles defensively, with the US using RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia bases, but no confirmed offensive strikes by additional countries. White House signals progress toward core objectives amid UN calls for de-escalation, though proxy escalations and potential Gulf responses could draw in more actors before April 30 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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