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地緣政治·以色列x伊朗

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

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地緣政治·以色列x伊朗

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

$461,879 交易量

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$461,879 交易量

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

$74,987 交易量

29%

UAE

$37,513 交易量

20%

Bahrain

$780 交易量

9%

Kuwait

$1,273 交易量

7%

Qatar

$701 交易量

6%

Any E.U. Country

$5,081 交易量

6%

Jordan

$926 交易量

6%

France

$148,533 交易量

5%

Turkey

$15,006 交易量

4%

Oman

$340 交易量

4%

UK

$103,183 交易量

3%

Germany

$75,558 交易量

3%

Canada

$0 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and destroying IRGC facilities, marking the onset of an ongoing conflict now in its fifth week as of late March. This escalation, triggered by prior Iranian proxy attacks via Hezbollah and others, has prompted defensive posture statements from the UK, France, and Germany, who signaled readiness for strikes to neutralize Iran's missile and drone capabilities. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weighing participation amid threats to their infrastructure, while US troop deployments signal potential ground operations. Ceasefire diplomacy continues amid pauses on energy strikes, with outcomes hinging on talks through April 30 resolution.

The US and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and destroying IRGC facilities, marking the onset of an ongoing conflict now in its fifth week as of late March. This escalation, triggered by prior Iranian proxy attacks via Hezbollah and others, has prompted defensive posture statements from the UK, France, and Germany, who signaled readiness for strikes to neutralize Iran's missile and drone capabilities. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weighing participation amid threats to their infrastructure, while US troop deployments signal potential ground operations. Ceasefire diplomacy continues amid pauses on energy strikes, with outcomes hinging on talks through April 30 resolution.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and destroying IRGC facilities, marking the onset of an ongoing conflict now in its fifth week as of late March. This escalation, triggered by prior Iranian proxy attacks via Hezbollah and others, has prompted defensive posture statements from the UK, France, and Germany, who signaled readiness for strikes to neutralize Iran's missile and drone capabilities. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weighing participation amid threats to their infrastructure, while US troop deployments signal potential ground operations. Ceasefire diplomacy continues amid pauses on energy strikes, with outcomes hinging on talks through April 30 resolution.

The US and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and destroying IRGC facilities, marking the onset of an ongoing conflict now in its fifth week as of late March. This escalation, triggered by prior Iranian proxy attacks via Hezbollah and others, has prompted defensive posture statements from the UK, France, and Germany, who signaled readiness for strikes to neutralize Iran's missile and drone capabilities. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weighing participation amid threats to their infrastructure, while US troop deployments signal potential ground operations. Ceasefire diplomacy continues amid pauses on energy strikes, with outcomes hinging on talks through April 30 resolution.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Saudi Arabia" at 28%, followed by "UAE" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" has generated $461.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" is "Saudi Arabia" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "UAE" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.