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政治·以色列x伊朗

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

Market icon
政治·以色列x伊朗

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

Apr 30

Apr 30

10% chance
Polymarket
NEW
10% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Despite the U.S. State Department's February 23 ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from the U.S. Mission in Lebanon amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah hostilities, the Beirut embassy has sustained core operations under strict security protocols. Recent security alerts through March 26 confirm no alterations to embassy functions, with limited emergency passport services resuming and routine consular suspended. Amid a Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory and urging U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights from Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" full evacuation by April 30, reflecting the absence of direct threats or announcements necessitating embassy closure—typically a last-resort measure—while monitoring potential military escalations or diplomatic shifts in the ongoing Lebanon conflict.

Despite the U.S. State Department's February 23 ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from the U.S. Mission in Lebanon amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah hostilities, the Beirut embassy has sustained core operations under strict security protocols. Recent security alerts through March 26 confirm no alterations to embassy functions, with limited emergency passport services resuming and routine consular suspended. Amid a Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory and urging U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights from Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" full evacuation by April 30, reflecting the absence of direct threats or announcements necessitating embassy closure—typically a last-resort measure—while monitoring potential military escalations or diplomatic shifts in the ongoing Lebanon conflict.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. Despite the U.S. State Department's February 23 ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from the U.S. Mission in Lebanon amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah hostilities, the Beirut embassy has sustained core operations under strict security protocols. Recent security alerts through March 26 confirm no alterations to embassy functions, with limited emergency passport services resuming and routine consular suspended. Amid a Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory and urging U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights from Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" full evacuation by April 30, reflecting the absence of direct threats or announcements necessitating embassy closure—typically a last-resort measure—while monitoring potential military escalations or diplomatic shifts in the ongoing Lebanon conflict.

Despite the U.S. State Department's February 23 ordered departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from the U.S. Mission in Lebanon amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah hostilities, the Beirut embassy has sustained core operations under strict security protocols. Recent security alerts through March 26 confirm no alterations to embassy functions, with limited emergency passport services resuming and routine consular suspended. Amid a Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory and urging U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights from Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" full evacuation by April 30, reflecting the absence of direct threats or announcements necessitating embassy closure—typically a last-resort measure—while monitoring potential military escalations or diplomatic shifts in the ongoing Lebanon conflict.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 10% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 10¢, the market collectively assigns a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" is 10% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.