Polymarket traders price a subdued UK economic outlook for 2026 annual GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly contested between contraction (<0% at 32.5%) and minimal expansion (0-1% at 30%), diverging from the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast of 1.1% amid January's flat monthly GDP print from the Office for National Statistics. This trader consensus reflects a weak Q1 start—three-month growth to January at just 0.9%—exacerbated by surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, potential inflation rebound above 5%, and softening labor demand, as noted in Bank of England March minutes projecting Q1 quarterly GDP at 0.1-0.2%. Key swing factors include February GDP data (due mid-April) and Q1 quarterly release (late April), alongside monetary policy trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於0-1% 46%
低於0% 34%
1-2% 11%
5%+ 10%
最新
最新
2027-02-12
低於0%
34%
0-1%
30%
1-2%
19%
2-3%
6%
3-4%
9%
4-5%
9%
5%+
10%
0-1% 46%
低於0% 34%
1-2% 11%
5%+ 10%
最新
最新
2027-02-12
低於0%
$229 交易量
34%
0-1%
$248 交易量
30%
1-2%
$205 交易量
19%
2-3%
$206 交易量
6%
3-4%
$193 交易量
9%
4-5%
$283 交易量
9%
5%+
$230 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a subdued UK economic outlook for 2026 annual GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly contested between contraction (<0% at 32.5%) and minimal expansion (0-1% at 30%), diverging from the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast of 1.1% amid January's flat monthly GDP print from the Office for National Statistics. This trader consensus reflects a weak Q1 start—three-month growth to January at just 0.9%—exacerbated by surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, potential inflation rebound above 5%, and softening labor demand, as noted in Bank of England March minutes projecting Q1 quarterly GDP at 0.1-0.2%. Key swing factors include February GDP data (due mid-April) and Q1 quarterly release (late April), alongside monetary policy trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
交易量
$1,594結束日期
2027-02-12市場開放時間
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a subdued UK economic outlook for 2026 annual GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly contested between contraction (<0% at 32.5%) and minimal expansion (0-1% at 30%), diverging from the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast of 1.1% amid January's flat monthly GDP print from the Office for National Statistics. This trader consensus reflects a weak Q1 start—three-month growth to January at just 0.9%—exacerbated by surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, potential inflation rebound above 5%, and softening labor demand, as noted in Bank of England March minutes projecting Q1 quarterly GDP at 0.1-0.2%. Key swing factors include February GDP data (due mid-April) and Q1 quarterly release (late April), alongside monetary policy trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,594結束日期
2027-02-12市場開放時間
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a subdued UK economic outlook for 2026 annual GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly contested between contraction (<0% at 32.5%) and minimal expansion (0-1% at 30%), diverging from the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast of 1.1% amid January's flat monthly GDP print from the Office for National Statistics. This trader consensus reflects a weak Q1 start—three-month growth to January at just 0.9%—exacerbated by surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, potential inflation rebound above 5%, and softening labor demand, as noted in Bank of England March minutes projecting Q1 quarterly GDP at 0.1-0.2%. Key swing factors include February GDP data (due mid-April) and Q1 quarterly release (late April), alongside monetary policy trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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