Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 80.5% probability of no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event per USGS records—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of precursors in key subduction zones. USGS data confirms no M9+ quakes worldwide in 2026 so far, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and scattered M6-7 events elsewhere, well below megaquake thresholds. Historical records show only five instrumental M9+ quakes since 1900, averaging one every two decades, but short-term forecasting remains impossible per USGS experts. Recent monitoring of Cascadia and Nankai Trough reveals no anomalous slow slips, tremors, or strain buildup warranting elevated risk; ongoing seismic networks will provide real-time updates as the deadline nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於6月30日前發生超級地震？
6月30日前發生超級地震？
是
$37,348 交易量
$37,348 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$37,348 交易量
$37,348 交易量
2026-06-30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 80.5% probability of no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event per USGS records—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of precursors in key subduction zones. USGS data confirms no M9+ quakes worldwide in 2026 so far, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and scattered M6-7 events elsewhere, well below megaquake thresholds. Historical records show only five instrumental M9+ quakes since 1900, averaging one every two decades, but short-term forecasting remains impossible per USGS experts. Recent monitoring of Cascadia and Nankai Trough reveals no anomalous slow slips, tremors, or strain buildup warranting elevated risk; ongoing seismic networks will provide real-time updates as the deadline nears.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$37,348結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 80.5% probability of no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event per USGS records—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of precursors in key subduction zones. USGS data confirms no M9+ quakes worldwide in 2026 so far, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and scattered M6-7 events elsewhere, well below megaquake thresholds. Historical records show only five instrumental M9+ quakes since 1900, averaging one every two decades, but short-term forecasting remains impossible per USGS experts. Recent monitoring of Cascadia and Nankai Trough reveals no anomalous slow slips, tremors, or strain buildup warranting elevated risk; ongoing seismic networks will provide real-time updates as the deadline nears.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$37,348結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 80.5% probability of no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0+ event per USGS records—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of precursors in key subduction zones. USGS data confirms no M9+ quakes worldwide in 2026 so far, with the largest being a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and scattered M6-7 events elsewhere, well below megaquake thresholds. Historical records show only five instrumental M9+ quakes since 1900, averaging one every two decades, but short-term forecasting remains impossible per USGS experts. Recent monitoring of Cascadia and Nankai Trough reveals no anomalous slow slips, tremors, or strain buildup warranting elevated risk; ongoing seismic networks will provide real-time updates as the deadline nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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