Amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have destroyed over 140 Iranian naval vessels, degraded anti-ship missiles, drones, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz since late February, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities—peaking at 7% for March 30 and 25% for April 10—for further direct Iranian kinetic strikes on commercial shipping. The most recent verifiable incident was Iran's March 27 strike on the Thai container ship Mayuree Naree attempting unauthorized passage, prompting Thailand's subsequent safe-passage deal with Tehran. IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri's death in an Israeli strike further erodes command structure, while tolled transits for select vessels have shifted enforcement dynamics. Upcoming retaliatory actions, diplomatic talks signaled by President Trump, and attempted ship passages could still prompt escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
13%
April 2
15%
April 3
14%
April 4
13%
April 5
14%
April 6
12%
April 7
14%
April 8
15%
April 9
16%
April 10
20%
$284 交易量
April 1
$26 交易量
13%
April 2
$28 交易量
15%
April 3
$76 交易量
14%
April 4
$11 交易量
13%
April 5
$26 交易量
14%
April 6
$80 交易量
12%
April 7
$0 交易量
14%
April 8
$0 交易量
15%
April 9
$11 交易量
16%
April 10
$26 交易量
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have destroyed over 140 Iranian naval vessels, degraded anti-ship missiles, drones, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz since late February, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities—peaking at 7% for March 30 and 25% for April 10—for further direct Iranian kinetic strikes on commercial shipping. The most recent verifiable incident was Iran's March 27 strike on the Thai container ship Mayuree Naree attempting unauthorized passage, prompting Thailand's subsequent safe-passage deal with Tehran. IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri's death in an Israeli strike further erodes command structure, while tolled transits for select vessels have shifted enforcement dynamics. Upcoming retaliatory actions, diplomatic talks signaled by President Trump, and attempted ship passages could still prompt escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
交易量
$284結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have destroyed over 140 Iranian naval vessels, degraded anti-ship missiles, drones, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz since late February, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities—peaking at 7% for March 30 and 25% for April 10—for further direct Iranian kinetic strikes on commercial shipping. The most recent verifiable incident was Iran's March 27 strike on the Thai container ship Mayuree Naree attempting unauthorized passage, prompting Thailand's subsequent safe-passage deal with Tehran. IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri's death in an Israeli strike further erodes command structure, while tolled transits for select vessels have shifted enforcement dynamics. Upcoming retaliatory actions, diplomatic talks signaled by President Trump, and attempted ship passages could still prompt escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$284結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that have destroyed over 140 Iranian naval vessels, degraded anti-ship missiles, drones, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz since late February, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities—peaking at 7% for March 30 and 25% for April 10—for further direct Iranian kinetic strikes on commercial shipping. The most recent verifiable incident was Iran's March 27 strike on the Thai container ship Mayuree Naree attempting unauthorized passage, prompting Thailand's subsequent safe-passage deal with Tehran. IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri's death in an Israeli strike further erodes command structure, while tolled transits for select vessels have shifted enforcement dynamics. Upcoming retaliatory actions, diplomatic talks signaled by President Trump, and attempted ship passages could still prompt escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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