Amid the US-Iran conflict that erupted February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, slashing daily vessel transits from 138 to a trickle and trapping over 400 ships while demanding tolls and issuing drone and speedboat threats. European officials report Iran urging Houthi proxies to prepare renewed Red Sea shipping attacks should US escalation continue, following Houthis' March 28 missile barrages on Israel. Traders focus on verifiable Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures of commercial vessels in international waters, with potential US military moves to reopen Hormuz and Houthi responses as pivotal near-term risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$12,344 交易量
2026-04-30
April 1
99%
April 2
4%
April 3
16%
April 4
19%
April 5
16%
April 6
22%
April 7
33%
April 8
42%
April 9
35%
April 10
31%
$12,344 交易量
April 1
$7,913 交易量
99%
April 2
$3,260 交易量
4%
April 3
$799 交易量
16%
April 4
$11 交易量
19%
April 5
$76 交易量
16%
April 6
$84 交易量
22%
April 7
$141 交易量
33%
April 8
$0 交易量
42%
April 9
$11 交易量
35%
April 10
$48 交易量
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Iran conflict that erupted February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, slashing daily vessel transits from 138 to a trickle and trapping over 400 ships while demanding tolls and issuing drone and speedboat threats. European officials report Iran urging Houthi proxies to prepare renewed Red Sea shipping attacks should US escalation continue, following Houthis' March 28 missile barrages on Israel. Traders focus on verifiable Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures of commercial vessels in international waters, with potential US military moves to reopen Hormuz and Houthi responses as pivotal near-term risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
交易量
$12,344結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Iran conflict that erupted February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, slashing daily vessel transits from 138 to a trickle and trapping over 400 ships while demanding tolls and issuing drone and speedboat threats. European officials report Iran urging Houthi proxies to prepare renewed Red Sea shipping attacks should US escalation continue, following Houthis' March 28 missile barrages on Israel. Traders focus on verifiable Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures of commercial vessels in international waters, with potential US military moves to reopen Hormuz and Houthi responses as pivotal near-term risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$12,344結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Iran conflict that erupted February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, slashing daily vessel transits from 138 to a trickle and trapping over 400 ships while demanding tolls and issuing drone and speedboat threats. European officials report Iran urging Houthi proxies to prepare renewed Red Sea shipping attacks should US escalation continue, following Houthis' March 28 missile barrages on Israel. Traders focus on verifiable Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures of commercial vessels in international waters, with potential US military moves to reopen Hormuz and Houthi responses as pivotal near-term risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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