Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas on March 26 peg the high temperature around 88°F, aligning with trader consensus favoring 86-89°F outcomes at 39.5% and 34.0% implied probabilities. A persistent upper-level ridge over Texas is driving subsidence warming, with southwesterly winds advecting Gulf moisture and heat, pushing above-normal March temperatures into the upper 80s. Ensemble model guidance shows tight spread—GFS at 87°F, ECMWF slightly warmer at 89°F—reflecting minor uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover. New high-resolution HRRR runs expected this afternoon could refine the peak, as diurnally heated surfaces amplify small forecast discrepancies. Historical March highs average 68°F, underscoring this anomalously warm setup.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3月26日達拉斯的最高溫度?
3月26日達拉斯的最高溫度?
86-87°F 39%
88-89°F 34%
84-85°F 19%
90-91°F 8%
$37,824 交易量
$37,824 交易量
華氏79度或以下
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
39%
88-89°F
34%
90-91°F
8%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F或更高
<1%
86-87°F 39%
88-89°F 34%
84-85°F 19%
90-91°F 8%
$37,824 交易量
$37,824 交易量
華氏79度或以下
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
39%
88-89°F
34%
90-91°F
8%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas on March 26 peg the high temperature around 88°F, aligning with trader consensus favoring 86-89°F outcomes at 39.5% and 34.0% implied probabilities. A persistent upper-level ridge over Texas is driving subsidence warming, with southwesterly winds advecting Gulf moisture and heat, pushing above-normal March temperatures into the upper 80s. Ensemble model guidance shows tight spread—GFS at 87°F, ECMWF slightly warmer at 89°F—reflecting minor uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover. New high-resolution HRRR runs expected this afternoon could refine the peak, as diurnally heated surfaces amplify small forecast discrepancies. Historical March highs average 68°F, underscoring this anomalously warm setup.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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