Traders price the 2026 “Nothing Ever Happens” outcome at 69.5 percent because no major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions have materialized in the first five months of the year. Early 2026 events such as the Venezuelan leadership change and U.S.-Israel operations against Iran occurred outside the specific resolution triggers, while subsequent months have featured only routine diplomatic activity, scheduled elections in Ethiopia, Armenia, and Peru, and preparations for the FIFA World Cup without producing new catalysts. Ongoing Senate confirmations, agency rulemaking, and coalition negotiations in several countries remain within normal bounds, leaving the market to reflect trader consensus that transformative developments are unlikely to emerge before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông có gì xảy ra: 2026
Không có gì xảy ra: 2026
Có
$593,483 KL.
$593,483 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$593,483 KL.
$593,483 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders price the 2026 “Nothing Ever Happens” outcome at 69.5 percent because no major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions have materialized in the first five months of the year. Early 2026 events such as the Venezuelan leadership change and U.S.-Israel operations against Iran occurred outside the specific resolution triggers, while subsequent months have featured only routine diplomatic activity, scheduled elections in Ethiopia, Armenia, and Peru, and preparations for the FIFA World Cup without producing new catalysts. Ongoing Senate confirmations, agency rulemaking, and coalition negotiations in several countries remain within normal bounds, leaving the market to reflect trader consensus that transformative developments are unlikely to emerge before December 31.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$593,483Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTraders price the 2026 “Nothing Ever Happens” outcome at 69.5 percent because no major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions have materialized in the first five months of the year. Early 2026 events such as the Venezuelan leadership change and U.S.-Israel operations against Iran occurred outside the specific resolution triggers, while subsequent months have featured only routine diplomatic activity, scheduled elections in Ethiopia, Armenia, and Peru, and preparations for the FIFA World Cup without producing new catalysts. Ongoing Senate confirmations, agency rulemaking, and coalition negotiations in several countries remain within normal bounds, leaving the market to reflect trader consensus that transformative developments are unlikely to emerge before December 31.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$593,483Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price the 2026 “Nothing Ever Happens” outcome at 69.5 percent because no major geopolitical escalations, U.S. legislative breakthroughs, or significant executive actions have materialized in the first five months of the year. Early 2026 events such as the Venezuelan leadership change and U.S.-Israel operations against Iran occurred outside the specific resolution triggers, while subsequent months have featured only routine diplomatic activity, scheduled elections in Ethiopia, Armenia, and Peru, and preparations for the FIFA World Cup without producing new catalysts. Ongoing Senate confirmations, agency rulemaking, and coalition negotiations in several countries remain within normal bounds, leaving the market to reflect trader consensus that transformative developments are unlikely to emerge before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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