Trader consensus prices a 66.5% chance of "Yes" on no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events in the first five months despite geopolitical close calls. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets amid Hormuz Strait incidents stopped short of qualifying as a full invasion or regime fall, while Ukraine's Victory Day truce has held without Russian incursions into NATO territory. President Trump remains in office via routine executive actions, Xi Jinping shows no signs of removal ahead of potential U.S.-China summits, and Bitcoin holds steady between $10k and $1M. Natural disasters like 9.0+ earthquakes or VEI 6+ eruptions have not occurred. The November midterms represent the primary risk, with potential for a Republican trifecta including Senate supermajority.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông có gì xảy ra: 2026
Không có gì xảy ra: 2026
Có
$556,919 KL.
$556,919 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$556,919 KL.
$556,919 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 66.5% chance of "Yes" on no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events in the first five months despite geopolitical close calls. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets amid Hormuz Strait incidents stopped short of qualifying as a full invasion or regime fall, while Ukraine's Victory Day truce has held without Russian incursions into NATO territory. President Trump remains in office via routine executive actions, Xi Jinping shows no signs of removal ahead of potential U.S.-China summits, and Bitcoin holds steady between $10k and $1M. Natural disasters like 9.0+ earthquakes or VEI 6+ eruptions have not occurred. The November midterms represent the primary risk, with potential for a Republican trifecta including Senate supermajority.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$556,919Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 66.5% chance of "Yes" on no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events in the first five months despite geopolitical close calls. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets amid Hormuz Strait incidents stopped short of qualifying as a full invasion or regime fall, while Ukraine's Victory Day truce has held without Russian incursions into NATO territory. President Trump remains in office via routine executive actions, Xi Jinping shows no signs of removal ahead of potential U.S.-China summits, and Bitcoin holds steady between $10k and $1M. Natural disasters like 9.0+ earthquakes or VEI 6+ eruptions have not occurred. The November midterms represent the primary risk, with potential for a Republican trifecta including Senate supermajority.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$556,919Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 66.5% chance of "Yes" on no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events in the first five months despite geopolitical close calls. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets amid Hormuz Strait incidents stopped short of qualifying as a full invasion or regime fall, while Ukraine's Victory Day truce has held without Russian incursions into NATO territory. President Trump remains in office via routine executive actions, Xi Jinping shows no signs of removal ahead of potential U.S.-China summits, and Bitcoin holds steady between $10k and $1M. Natural disasters like 9.0+ earthquakes or VEI 6+ eruptions have not occurred. The November midterms represent the primary risk, with potential for a Republican trifecta including Senate supermajority.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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