Trader consensus prices a 68% implied probability for no major disruptions in 2026, driven by the absence of any resolution triggers through mid-May despite elevated geopolitical risks earlier in the year. A May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce has reduced Russia-NATO invasion fears, while recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria, preserving stability without Iranian regime collapse. President Trump remains in office with no verified leadership changes for Xi Jinping, Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000 far from $1 million or $10,000 extremes, and no qualifying natural disasters have occurred. Upcoming Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms—where historical precedents limit Republican Senate supermajority odds—keep the remaining 32% No probability alive amid potential black swan escalations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông có gì xảy ra: 2026
Không có gì xảy ra: 2026
Có
$557,480 KL.
$557,480 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$557,480 KL.
$557,480 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 68% implied probability for no major disruptions in 2026, driven by the absence of any resolution triggers through mid-May despite elevated geopolitical risks earlier in the year. A May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce has reduced Russia-NATO invasion fears, while recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria, preserving stability without Iranian regime collapse. President Trump remains in office with no verified leadership changes for Xi Jinping, Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000 far from $1 million or $10,000 extremes, and no qualifying natural disasters have occurred. Upcoming Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms—where historical precedents limit Republican Senate supermajority odds—keep the remaining 32% No probability alive amid potential black swan escalations.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$557,480Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 68% implied probability for no major disruptions in 2026, driven by the absence of any resolution triggers through mid-May despite elevated geopolitical risks earlier in the year. A May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce has reduced Russia-NATO invasion fears, while recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria, preserving stability without Iranian regime collapse. President Trump remains in office with no verified leadership changes for Xi Jinping, Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000 far from $1 million or $10,000 extremes, and no qualifying natural disasters have occurred. Upcoming Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms—where historical precedents limit Republican Senate supermajority odds—keep the remaining 32% No probability alive amid potential black swan escalations.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$557,480Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 68% implied probability for no major disruptions in 2026, driven by the absence of any resolution triggers through mid-May despite elevated geopolitical risks earlier in the year. A May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce has reduced Russia-NATO invasion fears, while recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria, preserving stability without Iranian regime collapse. President Trump remains in office with no verified leadership changes for Xi Jinping, Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000 far from $1 million or $10,000 extremes, and no qualifying natural disasters have occurred. Upcoming Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms—where historical precedents limit Republican Senate supermajority odds—keep the remaining 32% No probability alive amid potential black swan escalations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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