Trader consensus prices a 57.5% chance of no major disruptions in 2026, reflecting the absence of any resolution triggers through mid-April despite elevated geopolitical risks. Recent US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including reported ship attacks and a short-lived ceasefire after presidential threats, de-escalated without US invasion or Iranian regime collapse. President Trump remains securely in office amid stable cabinet and no removal signals. Bitcoin prices held steady away from $1 million or $10,000 extremes, while no catastrophic natural events like a VEI 6+ volcano or 9.0+ earthquake occurred. Key uncertainties persist ahead of November midterms, where Republican Senate supermajority odds trail, alongside low probabilities for China-Taiwan invasion, Russia-NATO clash, or Xi Jinping ouster.