On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, first imposed in April 2026 after Islamabad talks collapsed and briefly lifted in June under a fragile memorandum of understanding, remains in effect following its reinstatement on July 14 amid renewed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM continues enforcement operations, including vessel redirects and precision strikes on Iranian maritime targets, while Iran demands the blockade's removal plus sanctions relief and other concessions before fully reopening transit routes. Recent diplomacy involving Oman has produced draft agreements on temporary shipping corridors, yet hardline factions within Iran's Supreme National Security Council and IRGC continue pressing maximalist conditions. Traders are watching for any formal US presidential statement or CENTCOM announcement confirming the blockade's termination, alongside scheduled diplomatic milestones that could shift enforcement posture in the coming weeks.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, first imposed in April 2026 after Islamabad talks collapsed and briefly lifted in June under a fragile memorandum of understanding, remains in effect following its reinstatement on July 14 amid renewed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM continues enforcement operations, including vessel redirects and precision strikes on Iranian maritime targets, while Iran demands the blockade's removal plus sanctions relief and other concessions before fully reopening transit routes. Recent diplomacy involving Oman has produced draft agreements on temporary shipping corridors, yet hardline factions within Iran's Supreme National Security Council and IRGC continue pressing maximalist conditions. Traders are watching for any formal US presidential statement or CENTCOM announcement confirming the blockade's termination, alongside scheduled diplomatic milestones that could shift enforcement posture in the coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Jul 31 2026
US Navy actively enforces Iran blockade with helicopter support, redirects vessels
August 31 drops to 34%6%
US Navy operations, including helicopter support aboard the USS Michael Murphy, continued enforcing the naval blockade against Iran, redirecting commercial vessels. This military activity indicated ongoing commitment to the blockade, causing market prices for near-term blockade end dates to decline.
Jul 31 2026
Reports indicate ongoing diplomatic negotiations but no formal end to blockade yet
October 31 surges to 91%27%
Despite ongoing diplomatic talks between the US and Iran to halt hostilities and resume negotiations, no official announcement ending the naval blockade had been made by late July 2026, maintaining market uncertainty about the blockade's resolution.
Jul 31 2026
US Navy enforces Iran blockade with helicopter support, redirects 30 vessels
August 31 drops to 34%6%
US Navy actively enforced the blockade with helicopter support aboard USS Michael Murphy, redirecting vessels and signaling continued military commitment. This enforcement contributed to market expectations that the blockade would not end by the July 31 deadline, lowering short-term probabilities.
Jul 31 2026
Trump cancels planned attack on Iran after agreement outline reached
August 31 rises to 40%4%
President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned military attack on Iran after Iran and regional neighbors requested a hold on strikes, indicating potential diplomatic progress and reducing immediate conflict risks.
Jul 31 2026
Diplomatic talks continue amid uncertainty over permanent end to naval blockade
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
As of late July, the US and Iran engaged in ongoing diplomatic negotiations to halt hostilities and discuss the Strait of Hormuz, but no formal timeline for permanently ending the blockade was established, maintaining market uncertainty about the blockade's future.
Jul 30 2026
Diplomatic talks continue amid uncertain timeline for blockade resolution
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
Reports indicated ongoing US-Iran negotiations focused on broader peace agreements without a formal timeline for ending the naval blockade, maintaining market uncertainty and influencing moderate price fluctuations.
Jul 30 2026
Diplomatic talks continue with no formal timeline for permanent blockade end
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
Reports indicated ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran with no formal timeline established for a permanent end to the blockade. This uncertainty affected market confidence, particularly for the October 31 resolution date, reflecting the complex geopolitical variables involved.
Jul 15 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian missile sites amid blockade reinstatement
Following the reinstatement of the naval blockade, US Central Command launched multiple air and maritime strikes against Iranian military installations near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command enforces naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas
December 31 rises to 87%2%
The US Central Command officially commenced enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas at 4 p.m. ET, deploying warships and aircraft to secure the Strait of Hormuz. This operational move confirmed the blockade's reinstatement and intensified market concerns about ongoing restrictions on Iranian maritime traffic.
Jul 14 2026
US military resumes naval blockade enforcement in Strait of Hormuz
August 7 jumps to 20%11%
Following President Trump's announcement, US Central Command officially resumed enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, accompanied by military strikes. This operational restart confirmed the blockade's continuation and influenced market sentiment.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command begins enforcement of reinstated naval blockade on Iranian ports
August 31 jumps to 65%5%
Following President Trump's announcement, US Central Command officially began enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping, redirecting vessels and boarding ships to ensure compliance, signaling sustained military pressure on Iran.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command resumes enforcement of naval blockade on Iranian ports
CENTCOM announced the resumption of the naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports and coastal areas, following President Trump's directive, reinforcing the US military presence and control over maritime traffic to and from Iran.
Jul 14 2026
President Trump abandons plan to impose 20% transit fee on Strait of Hormuz shipping
August 7 surges to 35%15%
President Trump reversed his earlier plan to charge a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead for trade and investment deals with Gulf states. This policy shift reduced some market uncertainty about the blockade's economic impact.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
December 31 plunges to 63%19%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and failed diplomatic talks, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, ending the ceasefire and causing market confidence in blockade termination to drop sharply.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 7 jumps to 38%14%
President Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, ending the ceasefire and escalating tensions. This clear and official declaration directly impacted market prices, reflecting increased conflict risk.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 7 surges to 42%18%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and fractured ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, signaling a return to heightened tensions and ending the ceasefire. This announcement caused a significant market shift reflecting the blockade's reimposition.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
Following renewed Iranian attacks and fractured ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, marking the end of the ceasefire and causing a sharp market reaction reflecting increased conflict risk.
Jul 13 2026
US Central Command confirms naval blockade enforcement to begin July 14
October 31 surges to 79%15%
The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center announced the blockade enforcement on Iranian ports and coastal areas would begin at 20:00 GMT on July 14, reinforcing the official start of the blockade and impacting market expectations.
Jul 13 2026
Trump abandons plan to charge 20% toll for Strait of Hormuz passage
August 31 jumps to 57%10%
Following negotiations with Persian Gulf leaders, President Trump announced he would not impose the previously threatened 20% fee on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but maintained the naval blockade on Iranian vessels, affecting market sentiment.
Jul 13 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian targets amid blockade reinstatement
December 31 rises to 89%4%
Alongside the blockade announcement, the US military conducted strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites, escalating the conflict and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement, which influenced market prices upward.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 31 drops to 38%9%
President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships, marking the end of the ceasefire and increasing uncertainty about the blockade's future. This announcement caused a temporary dip in market prices as the blockade was reimposed.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of U.S. naval blockade on Iran and imposes 20% toll on cargo
August 13 surges to 52%24%
Following renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of the ceasefire, President Trump declared the reimposition of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, escalating tensions and causing a sharp market reaction.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 15 plunges to 28%20%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and the collapse of the ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian-flagged and customer ships, imposing passage fees and positioning the US as guardian of the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement caused a sharp drop in market confidence regarding the blockade's end.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 13 surges to 48%20%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and failed diplomatic talks, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, causing market uncertainty and a drop in confidence for the blockade ending soon.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran and control of Strait of Hormuz
December 31 surges to 85%22%
President Donald Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, declaring the US would assume control of the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% tariff on cargo. This marked a significant escalation in US-Iran tensions and directly influenced market expectations of continued blockade enforcement.
Jul 13 2026
Trump notifies Congress of renewed military action and blockade enforcement
December 31 surges to 85%22%
President Trump formally notified Congress that US military action against Iran had resumed on July 7, including defensive strikes and the reinstatement of the naval blockade. This official communication underscored the US government's present and decided position on the blockade, reinforcing market expectations of its continuation.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 31 drops to 41%6%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and the breakdown of the ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, signaling a return to heightened tensions and impacting market prices downward.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran amid renewed hostilities
August 7 dips to 22%2%
On July 13, 2026, President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade of Iran following a breakdown in the ceasefire and renewed Iranian attacks. This announcement caused a drop in market confidence for near-term blockade end dates.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of U.S. naval blockade on Iran
December 31 jumps to 56%9%
President Donald Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and ports, ending the ceasefire and signaling renewed conflict. This announcement directly impacted market expectations by confirming the blockade's continuation and escalation of tensions.
Jul 13 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian missile sites coinciding with blockade reinstatement
August 31 jumps to 60%13%
The US Central Command launched multiple air and maritime strikes on Iranian military installations near the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with the formal reinstatement of the naval blockade, intensifying military conflict in the region.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran with 20% toll on cargo
President Trump announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, imposing a 20% toll on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, following renewed Iranian attacks on shipping and the collapse of the ceasefire agreement.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, first imposed in April 2026 after Islamabad talks collapsed and briefly lifted in June under a fragile memorandum of understanding, remains in effect following its reinstatement on July 14 amid renewed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM continues enforcement operations, including vessel redirects and precision strikes on Iranian maritime targets, while Iran demands the blockade's removal plus sanctions relief and other concessions before fully reopening transit routes. Recent diplomacy involving Oman has produced draft agreements on temporary shipping corridors, yet hardline factions within Iran's Supreme National Security Council and IRGC continue pressing maximalist conditions. Traders are watching for any formal US presidential statement or CENTCOM announcement confirming the blockade's termination, alongside scheduled diplomatic milestones that could shift enforcement posture in the coming weeks.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, first imposed in April 2026 after Islamabad talks collapsed and briefly lifted in June under a fragile memorandum of understanding, remains in effect following its reinstatement on July 14 amid renewed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM continues enforcement operations, including vessel redirects and precision strikes on Iranian maritime targets, while Iran demands the blockade's removal plus sanctions relief and other concessions before fully reopening transit routes. Recent diplomacy involving Oman has produced draft agreements on temporary shipping corridors, yet hardline factions within Iran's Supreme National Security Council and IRGC continue pressing maximalist conditions. Traders are watching for any formal US presidential statement or CENTCOM announcement confirming the blockade's termination, alongside scheduled diplomatic milestones that could shift enforcement posture in the coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Jul 31 2026
US Navy actively enforces Iran blockade with helicopter support, redirects vessels
August 31 drops to 34%6%
US Navy operations, including helicopter support aboard the USS Michael Murphy, continued enforcing the naval blockade against Iran, redirecting commercial vessels. This military activity indicated ongoing commitment to the blockade, causing market prices for near-term blockade end dates to decline.
Jul 31 2026
Reports indicate ongoing diplomatic negotiations but no formal end to blockade yet
October 31 surges to 91%27%
Despite ongoing diplomatic talks between the US and Iran to halt hostilities and resume negotiations, no official announcement ending the naval blockade had been made by late July 2026, maintaining market uncertainty about the blockade's resolution.
Jul 31 2026
US Navy enforces Iran blockade with helicopter support, redirects 30 vessels
August 31 drops to 34%6%
US Navy actively enforced the blockade with helicopter support aboard USS Michael Murphy, redirecting vessels and signaling continued military commitment. This enforcement contributed to market expectations that the blockade would not end by the July 31 deadline, lowering short-term probabilities.
Jul 31 2026
Trump cancels planned attack on Iran after agreement outline reached
August 31 rises to 40%4%
President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned military attack on Iran after Iran and regional neighbors requested a hold on strikes, indicating potential diplomatic progress and reducing immediate conflict risks.
Jul 31 2026
Diplomatic talks continue amid uncertainty over permanent end to naval blockade
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
As of late July, the US and Iran engaged in ongoing diplomatic negotiations to halt hostilities and discuss the Strait of Hormuz, but no formal timeline for permanently ending the blockade was established, maintaining market uncertainty about the blockade's future.
Jul 30 2026
Diplomatic talks continue amid uncertain timeline for blockade resolution
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
Reports indicated ongoing US-Iran negotiations focused on broader peace agreements without a formal timeline for ending the naval blockade, maintaining market uncertainty and influencing moderate price fluctuations.
Jul 30 2026
Diplomatic talks continue with no formal timeline for permanent blockade end
October 31 jumps to 70%6%
Reports indicated ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran with no formal timeline established for a permanent end to the blockade. This uncertainty affected market confidence, particularly for the October 31 resolution date, reflecting the complex geopolitical variables involved.
Jul 15 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian missile sites amid blockade reinstatement
Following the reinstatement of the naval blockade, US Central Command launched multiple air and maritime strikes against Iranian military installations near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command enforces naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas
December 31 rises to 87%2%
The US Central Command officially commenced enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas at 4 p.m. ET, deploying warships and aircraft to secure the Strait of Hormuz. This operational move confirmed the blockade's reinstatement and intensified market concerns about ongoing restrictions on Iranian maritime traffic.
Jul 14 2026
US military resumes naval blockade enforcement in Strait of Hormuz
August 7 jumps to 20%11%
Following President Trump's announcement, US Central Command officially resumed enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, accompanied by military strikes. This operational restart confirmed the blockade's continuation and influenced market sentiment.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command begins enforcement of reinstated naval blockade on Iranian ports
August 31 jumps to 65%5%
Following President Trump's announcement, US Central Command officially began enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping, redirecting vessels and boarding ships to ensure compliance, signaling sustained military pressure on Iran.
Jul 14 2026
US Central Command resumes enforcement of naval blockade on Iranian ports
CENTCOM announced the resumption of the naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports and coastal areas, following President Trump's directive, reinforcing the US military presence and control over maritime traffic to and from Iran.
Jul 14 2026
President Trump abandons plan to impose 20% transit fee on Strait of Hormuz shipping
August 7 surges to 35%15%
President Trump reversed his earlier plan to charge a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead for trade and investment deals with Gulf states. This policy shift reduced some market uncertainty about the blockade's economic impact.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
December 31 plunges to 63%19%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and failed diplomatic talks, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, ending the ceasefire and causing market confidence in blockade termination to drop sharply.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 7 jumps to 38%14%
President Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, ending the ceasefire and escalating tensions. This clear and official declaration directly impacted market prices, reflecting increased conflict risk.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 7 surges to 42%18%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and fractured ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, signaling a return to heightened tensions and ending the ceasefire. This announcement caused a significant market shift reflecting the blockade's reimposition.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
Following renewed Iranian attacks and fractured ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, marking the end of the ceasefire and causing a sharp market reaction reflecting increased conflict risk.
Jul 13 2026
US Central Command confirms naval blockade enforcement to begin July 14
October 31 surges to 79%15%
The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center announced the blockade enforcement on Iranian ports and coastal areas would begin at 20:00 GMT on July 14, reinforcing the official start of the blockade and impacting market expectations.
Jul 13 2026
Trump abandons plan to charge 20% toll for Strait of Hormuz passage
August 31 jumps to 57%10%
Following negotiations with Persian Gulf leaders, President Trump announced he would not impose the previously threatened 20% fee on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but maintained the naval blockade on Iranian vessels, affecting market sentiment.
Jul 13 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian targets amid blockade reinstatement
December 31 rises to 89%4%
Alongside the blockade announcement, the US military conducted strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites, escalating the conflict and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement, which influenced market prices upward.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 31 drops to 38%9%
President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships, marking the end of the ceasefire and increasing uncertainty about the blockade's future. This announcement caused a temporary dip in market prices as the blockade was reimposed.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of U.S. naval blockade on Iran and imposes 20% toll on cargo
August 13 surges to 52%24%
Following renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of the ceasefire, President Trump declared the reimposition of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, escalating tensions and causing a sharp market reaction.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 15 plunges to 28%20%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and the collapse of the ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian-flagged and customer ships, imposing passage fees and positioning the US as guardian of the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement caused a sharp drop in market confidence regarding the blockade's end.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces immediate reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 13 surges to 48%20%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and failed diplomatic talks, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, causing market uncertainty and a drop in confidence for the blockade ending soon.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran and control of Strait of Hormuz
December 31 surges to 85%22%
President Donald Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, declaring the US would assume control of the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% tariff on cargo. This marked a significant escalation in US-Iran tensions and directly influenced market expectations of continued blockade enforcement.
Jul 13 2026
Trump notifies Congress of renewed military action and blockade enforcement
December 31 surges to 85%22%
President Trump formally notified Congress that US military action against Iran had resumed on July 7, including defensive strikes and the reinstatement of the naval blockade. This official communication underscored the US government's present and decided position on the blockade, reinforcing market expectations of its continuation.
Jul 13 2026
President Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran
August 31 drops to 41%6%
Following renewed Iranian attacks and the breakdown of the ceasefire, President Trump declared the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers, signaling a return to heightened tensions and impacting market prices downward.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran amid renewed hostilities
August 7 dips to 22%2%
On July 13, 2026, President Trump announced the immediate reinstatement of the US naval blockade of Iran following a breakdown in the ceasefire and renewed Iranian attacks. This announcement caused a drop in market confidence for near-term blockade end dates.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of U.S. naval blockade on Iran
December 31 jumps to 56%9%
President Donald Trump publicly announced the reinstatement of the U.S. naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and ports, ending the ceasefire and signaling renewed conflict. This announcement directly impacted market expectations by confirming the blockade's continuation and escalation of tensions.
Jul 13 2026
US military launches strikes on Iranian missile sites coinciding with blockade reinstatement
August 31 jumps to 60%13%
The US Central Command launched multiple air and maritime strikes on Iranian military installations near the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with the formal reinstatement of the naval blockade, intensifying military conflict in the region.
Jul 13 2026
Trump announces reinstatement of US naval blockade on Iran with 20% toll on cargo
President Trump announced the reinstatement of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships, imposing a 20% toll on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, following renewed Iranian attacks on shipping and the collapse of the ceasefire agreement.
"US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 17 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "December 31" ở mức 80%, tiếp theo là "October 31" ở mức 68%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 80¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 80% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.
Tính đến hôm nay, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" đã tạo $10.5 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Jul 13, 2026. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.
Để giao dịch trên "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?," duyệt 17 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.
Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" là "December 31" ở mức 80%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 80% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "October 31" ở mức 68%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.
Quy tắc giải quyết cho "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.
Có. Bạn không cần giao dịch để cập nhật thông tin. Trang này đóng vai trò theo dõi trực tiếp cho "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?." Xác suất kết quả cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi có giao dịch mới. Bạn có thể đánh dấu trang này và kiểm tra phần bình luận để xem trader khác đang nói gì. Bạn cũng có thể sử dụng bộ lọc khoảng thời gian trên biểu đồ để xem tỷ lệ đã thay đổi thế nào. Đây là cửa sổ miễn phí, thời gian thực vào điều thị trường kỳ vọng sẽ xảy ra.
Tỷ lệ Polymarket được đặt bởi trader thực đặt tiền thực đằng sau niềm tin, có xu hướng đưa ra dự đoán chính xác. Với $10.5 million được giao dịch trên "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?," giá này tổng hợp kiến thức và niềm tin tập thể của hàng nghìn người tham gia — thường vượt trội hơn thăm dò, dự báo chuyên gia và khảo sát truyền thống. Thị trường dự đoán như Polymarket có thành tích chính xác mạnh, đặc biệt khi sự kiện tiến gần ngày giải quyết. Ví dụ, Polymarket có điểm chính xác một tháng là 94%. Để biết thống kê mới nhất về độ chính xác dự đoán của Polymarket, truy cập trang độ chính xác trên Polymarket.
Để đặt lệnh đầu tiên trên "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?," đăng ký tài khoản Polymarket miễn phí và nạp tiền bằng crypto, thẻ tín dụng hoặc ghi nợ, hoặc chuyển khoản ngân hàng. Khi tài khoản đã được nạp, quay lại trang này, chọn kết quả bạn muốn giao dịch, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu bạn mới với thị trường dự đoán, nhấn liên kết "Cách hoạt động" ở đầu bất kỳ trang Polymarket nào để xem hướng dẫn từng bước nhanh về cách giao dịch.
Trên Polymarket, giá của mỗi kết quả đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Giá 80¢ cho "December 31" trong thị trường "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" nghĩa là trader tập thể tin rằng có khoảng 80% khả năng "December 31" sẽ là kết quả đúng. Nếu bạn mua cổ phần "Có" ở 80¢ và kết quả đúng, bạn nhận $1.00 mỗi cổ phần — lợi nhuận 20¢ mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, cổ phần đó giá trị $0.
Thị trường "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" dự kiến giải quyết vào hoặc khoảng Aug 31, 2026. Điều này có nghĩa giao dịch vẫn mở và tỷ lệ tiếp tục thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện cho đến ngày đó. Thời gian giải quyết chính xác phụ thuộc vào khi kết quả chính thức có sẵn, như được nêu trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này.
Thị trường "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" có cộng đồng sôi động với 312 bình luận nơi trader chia sẻ phân tích, tranh luận kết quả và thảo luận diễn biến mới nhất. Cuộn xuống phần bình luận bên dưới để đọc ý kiến từ người tham gia khác. Bạn cũng có thể lọc theo "Người nắm giữ hàng đầu" để xem trader lớn nhất đang nắm giữ vị thế ở đâu, hoặc kiểm tra tab "Hoạt động" cho dữ liệu giao dịch theo thời gian thực.
Polymarket là thị trường dự đoán lớn nhất thế giới, nơi bạn có thể cập nhật thông tin và kiếm lợi nhuận từ kiến thức về sự kiện thực tế. Trader mua và bán cổ phần trên kết quả cho các chủ đề từ chính trị và bầu cử đến crypto, tài chính, thể thao, công nghệ và văn hoá, bao gồm các thị trường như "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?." Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực được hỗ trợ bởi niềm tin tài chính, thường cung cấp tín hiệu nhanh và chính xác hơn thăm dò, bình luận viên hoặc khảo sát truyền thống.
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