Ongoing low-level confrontations in the South China Sea, including water cannon incidents, vessel rammings, and close air intercepts near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, have increased Chinese vessel deployments without triggering direct military engagement between state forces. Philippine officials report a near-doubling of Chinese navy and coast guard presence in September, yet Manila continues resupply missions under provisional arrangements and maintains diplomatic channels alongside economic cooperation. President Marcos has highlighted progress toward an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct by year-end, while both governments emphasize de-escalation and separate sovereignty assertions from broader bilateral ties. These patterns, combined with U.S. alliance support short of direct intervention, align with trader consensus that a full military clash remains unlikely before 2027.