Putin remains firmly in office through active governance and institutional control, with no recent signs of voluntary exit, health-related incapacitation, or elite challenge that would shift the timeline before December 2026. He continues to chair Security Council meetings, outline national priorities for 2026, and manage foreign policy alliances such as the CSTO, while constitutional amendments from 2020 enable eligibility through 2030 and potentially 2036. Centralized authority over security services and regional elites, combined with the absence of a designated successor, has historically minimized near-term transition risks in Russia’s system. Ongoing military operations in Ukraine have not triggered the internal shocks that sometimes precede leadership changes, reinforcing trader consensus around continuity through the resolution window. Late-breaking events such as sudden illness or major elite realignment remain the primary variables that could still alter outcomes.