Trader consensus prices a low probability of Russia conducting a nuclear detonation test by year-end 2026—2% by June 30, 9% by September 30, and 12% by December 31—reflecting no verified explosive tests since 1990 amid adherence to the de facto Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty moratorium. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration heightened nuclear deterrence rhetoric, building on President Putin's November 2025 order for test resumption proposals and Defense Minister Belousov's call to prepare Novaya Zemlya site, yet no activation has occurred. Early April Yars ICBM drills in Siberia signaled readiness without detonations, while planned 2026 solid-fuel ICBM launches lack nuclear yields. International verification scrutiny and escalation risks pose significant barriers, with seismic monitoring key to resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$1,343,106 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
30 tháng 6, 2026
3%
Ngày 30 tháng 9 năm 2026
8%
31 tháng 12, 2026
12%
$1,343,106 KL.
30 tháng 6, 2026
$4,974 KL.
3%
Ngày 30 tháng 9 năm 2026
$1,400 KL.
8%
31 tháng 12, 2026
$12,159 KL.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a low probability of Russia conducting a nuclear detonation test by year-end 2026—2% by June 30, 9% by September 30, and 12% by December 31—reflecting no verified explosive tests since 1990 amid adherence to the de facto Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty moratorium. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration heightened nuclear deterrence rhetoric, building on President Putin's November 2025 order for test resumption proposals and Defense Minister Belousov's call to prepare Novaya Zemlya site, yet no activation has occurred. Early April Yars ICBM drills in Siberia signaled readiness without detonations, while planned 2026 solid-fuel ICBM launches lack nuclear yields. International verification scrutiny and escalation risks pose significant barriers, with seismic monitoring key to resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,343,106Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a low probability of Russia conducting a nuclear detonation test by year-end 2026—2% by June 30, 9% by September 30, and 12% by December 31—reflecting no verified explosive tests since 1990 amid adherence to the de facto Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty moratorium. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration heightened nuclear deterrence rhetoric, building on President Putin's November 2025 order for test resumption proposals and Defense Minister Belousov's call to prepare Novaya Zemlya site, yet no activation has occurred. Early April Yars ICBM drills in Siberia signaled readiness without detonations, while planned 2026 solid-fuel ICBM launches lack nuclear yields. International verification scrutiny and escalation risks pose significant barriers, with seismic monitoring key to resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,343,106Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a low probability of Russia conducting a nuclear detonation test by year-end 2026—2% by June 30, 9% by September 30, and 12% by December 31—reflecting no verified explosive tests since 1990 amid adherence to the de facto Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty moratorium. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration heightened nuclear deterrence rhetoric, building on President Putin's November 2025 order for test resumption proposals and Defense Minister Belousov's call to prepare Novaya Zemlya site, yet no activation has occurred. Early April Yars ICBM drills in Siberia signaled readiness without detonations, while planned 2026 solid-fuel ICBM launches lack nuclear yields. International verification scrutiny and escalation risks pose significant barriers, with seismic monitoring key to resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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