The U.S. maintains a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing that has held since 1992, with no such tests conducted despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume them on an equal basis with rivals. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing diplomatic pressure on China over alleged low-yield or decoupled tests at Lop Nur, alongside U.S. concerns about Russian and Chinese arsenal expansion. In late September 2026, the National Nuclear Security Administration completed a non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site to refine detection of concealed foreign detonations. Key variables include the pace of bilateral talks on the sidelines of multilateral forums, any new verification agreements, and whether legislative or technical barriers delay full-scale U.S. testing within the market's resolution window.