Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 13% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting skepticism despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing amid concerns over Chinese and Russian activities. No explosive nuclear detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, with the administration still assessing options for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site, as confirmed by a top official on March 24. Senator Jacky Rosen's April 13 visit underscored ongoing stockpile stewardship via subcritical experiments, avoiding full-yield blasts. Congressional opposition, including funding blocks, and technical hurdles like 18-36 month readiness timelines keep odds low, though FY2027 budget votes could shift sentiment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
Thử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
$639,462 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
30 tháng 6, 2026
1%
30 tháng 9, 2026
8%
31 tháng 12, 2026
13%
$639,462 KL.
30 tháng 6, 2026
$23,204 KL.
1%
30 tháng 9, 2026
$2,149 KL.
8%
31 tháng 12, 2026
$3,890 KL.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 13% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting skepticism despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing amid concerns over Chinese and Russian activities. No explosive nuclear detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, with the administration still assessing options for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site, as confirmed by a top official on March 24. Senator Jacky Rosen's April 13 visit underscored ongoing stockpile stewardship via subcritical experiments, avoiding full-yield blasts. Congressional opposition, including funding blocks, and technical hurdles like 18-36 month readiness timelines keep odds low, though FY2027 budget votes could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$639,462Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 13% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting skepticism despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing amid concerns over Chinese and Russian activities. No explosive nuclear detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, with the administration still assessing options for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site, as confirmed by a top official on March 24. Senator Jacky Rosen's April 13 visit underscored ongoing stockpile stewardship via subcritical experiments, avoiding full-yield blasts. Congressional opposition, including funding blocks, and technical hurdles like 18-36 month readiness timelines keep odds low, though FY2027 budget votes could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$639,462Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 13% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting skepticism despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing amid concerns over Chinese and Russian activities. No explosive nuclear detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, with the administration still assessing options for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site, as confirmed by a top official on March 24. Senator Jacky Rosen's April 13 visit underscored ongoing stockpile stewardship via subcritical experiments, avoiding full-yield blasts. Congressional opposition, including funding blocks, and technical hurdles like 18-36 month readiness timelines keep odds low, though FY2027 budget votes could shift sentiment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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