President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing “immediately” and “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, citing concerns over foreign activities at sites like the Nevada National Security Site. However, subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the 24–36 month technical readiness timeline for underground explosive tests have kept probabilities low. Congressional resistance, including funding restrictions and Nevada state opposition, combined with the continued U.S. voluntary moratorium since 1992 and ambiguity over whether any activity would involve full-yield detonations rather than subcritical experiments, have limited momentum. No explosive test has occurred through May 2026, and upcoming congressional appropriations debates or diplomatic developments with nuclear powers could further shape timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
Thử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
$667,461 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
30 tháng 6, 2026
2%
30 tháng 9, 2026
5%
31 tháng 12, 2026
9%
$667,461 KL.
30 tháng 6, 2026
$40,114 KL.
2%
30 tháng 9, 2026
$6,656 KL.
5%
31 tháng 12, 2026
$10,472 KL.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing “immediately” and “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, citing concerns over foreign activities at sites like the Nevada National Security Site. However, subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the 24–36 month technical readiness timeline for underground explosive tests have kept probabilities low. Congressional resistance, including funding restrictions and Nevada state opposition, combined with the continued U.S. voluntary moratorium since 1992 and ambiguity over whether any activity would involve full-yield detonations rather than subcritical experiments, have limited momentum. No explosive test has occurred through May 2026, and upcoming congressional appropriations debates or diplomatic developments with nuclear powers could further shape timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$667,461Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing “immediately” and “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, citing concerns over foreign activities at sites like the Nevada National Security Site. However, subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the 24–36 month technical readiness timeline for underground explosive tests have kept probabilities low. Congressional resistance, including funding restrictions and Nevada state opposition, combined with the continued U.S. voluntary moratorium since 1992 and ambiguity over whether any activity would involve full-yield detonations rather than subcritical experiments, have limited momentum. No explosive test has occurred through May 2026, and upcoming congressional appropriations debates or diplomatic developments with nuclear powers could further shape timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$667,461Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing “immediately” and “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, citing concerns over foreign activities at sites like the Nevada National Security Site. However, subsequent clarifications from administration officials and the 24–36 month technical readiness timeline for underground explosive tests have kept probabilities low. Congressional resistance, including funding restrictions and Nevada state opposition, combined with the continued U.S. voluntary moratorium since 1992 and ambiguity over whether any activity would involve full-yield detonations rather than subcritical experiments, have limited momentum. No explosive test has occurred through May 2026, and upcoming congressional appropriations debates or diplomatic developments with nuclear powers could further shape timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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