Trump administration rhetoric since late 2025 has fueled speculation about resuming underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site after a 34-year moratorium, citing alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia that challenge CTBT compliance. However, trader consensus prices the leading outcome—"December 31, 2026"—at just 9%, reflecting congressional pushback against funding, clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright that no explosive tests are imminent, and reliance on the stockpile stewardship program for warhead certification. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with arms control advocates urging blocks in FY2027 budget debates; escalation signals or DOE/NNSA announcements could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
Thử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
$664,793 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
30 tháng 6, 2026
2%
30 tháng 9, 2026
6%
31 tháng 12, 2026
9%
$664,793 KL.
30 tháng 6, 2026
$38,774 KL.
2%
30 tháng 9, 2026
$5,584 KL.
6%
31 tháng 12, 2026
$10,216 KL.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration rhetoric since late 2025 has fueled speculation about resuming underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site after a 34-year moratorium, citing alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia that challenge CTBT compliance. However, trader consensus prices the leading outcome—"December 31, 2026"—at just 9%, reflecting congressional pushback against funding, clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright that no explosive tests are imminent, and reliance on the stockpile stewardship program for warhead certification. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with arms control advocates urging blocks in FY2027 budget debates; escalation signals or DOE/NNSA announcements could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$664,793Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration rhetoric since late 2025 has fueled speculation about resuming underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site after a 34-year moratorium, citing alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia that challenge CTBT compliance. However, trader consensus prices the leading outcome—"December 31, 2026"—at just 9%, reflecting congressional pushback against funding, clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright that no explosive tests are imminent, and reliance on the stockpile stewardship program for warhead certification. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with arms control advocates urging blocks in FY2027 budget debates; escalation signals or DOE/NNSA announcements could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$664,793Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration rhetoric since late 2025 has fueled speculation about resuming underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site after a 34-year moratorium, citing alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia that challenge CTBT compliance. However, trader consensus prices the leading outcome—"December 31, 2026"—at just 9%, reflecting congressional pushback against funding, clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright that no explosive tests are imminent, and reliance on the stockpile stewardship program for warhead certification. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with arms control advocates urging blocks in FY2027 budget debates; escalation signals or DOE/NNSA announcements could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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