Following the death of longtime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes that ignited war, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was swiftly appointed as successor by the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guards, marking a recent leadership transition. However, Mojtaba's complete absence from public view since March, coupled with conflicting reports—official Iranian statements claiming full health amid wartime security versus US and Israeli intelligence assessments of severe injuries, disfigurement, and unconsciousness treated in Qom—has fueled speculation of a power vacuum. Traders assess regime resilience amid ceasefire talks, internal factional pressures, and no-confidence risks, with upcoming diplomatic developments potentially stabilizing or precipitating further upheaval before year-end deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$9,541,838 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
Ngày 30 tháng 4
5%
Ngày 31 tháng 5
9%
30 tháng 6
17%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
32%
$9,541,838 KL.
Ngày 30 tháng 4
$3,369,872 KL.
5%
Ngày 31 tháng 5
$614,393 KL.
9%
30 tháng 6
$490,146 KL.
17%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
$1,836,600 KL.
32%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the death of longtime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes that ignited war, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was swiftly appointed as successor by the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guards, marking a recent leadership transition. However, Mojtaba's complete absence from public view since March, coupled with conflicting reports—official Iranian statements claiming full health amid wartime security versus US and Israeli intelligence assessments of severe injuries, disfigurement, and unconsciousness treated in Qom—has fueled speculation of a power vacuum. Traders assess regime resilience amid ceasefire talks, internal factional pressures, and no-confidence risks, with upcoming diplomatic developments potentially stabilizing or precipitating further upheaval before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,541,838Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the death of longtime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes that ignited war, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was swiftly appointed as successor by the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guards, marking a recent leadership transition. However, Mojtaba's complete absence from public view since March, coupled with conflicting reports—official Iranian statements claiming full health amid wartime security versus US and Israeli intelligence assessments of severe injuries, disfigurement, and unconsciousness treated in Qom—has fueled speculation of a power vacuum. Traders assess regime resilience amid ceasefire talks, internal factional pressures, and no-confidence risks, with upcoming diplomatic developments potentially stabilizing or precipitating further upheaval before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$9,541,838Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the death of longtime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026 US-Israeli airstrikes that ignited war, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was swiftly appointed as successor by the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guards, marking a recent leadership transition. However, Mojtaba's complete absence from public view since March, coupled with conflicting reports—official Iranian statements claiming full health amid wartime security versus US and Israeli intelligence assessments of severe injuries, disfigurement, and unconsciousness treated in Qom—has fueled speculation of a power vacuum. Traders assess regime resilience amid ceasefire talks, internal factional pressures, and no-confidence risks, with upcoming diplomatic developments potentially stabilizing or precipitating further upheaval before year-end deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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