Ongoing diplomatic efforts and a conditional ceasefire since April 2026 have shaped trader views on limited U.S. military options short of ground invasion. Following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in late February that initiated broader conflict, talks resumed with direct high-level meetings in Islamabad and reports of progress toward a peace framework by late May. U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil networks and weapons procurement continued as leverage alongside naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz, while no verified ground operations aimed at territorial control have materialized. These developments, combined with historical patterns favoring airstrikes and economic pressure over large-scale occupation, underpin the current 82.5% implied probability for no U.S. invasion before 2027.