Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury runs unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+7, where she won 56% in 2024 against Republican Steve Jones. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats stems from the district's consistent double-digit Democratic margins since 2020, Stansbury's incumbency advantage, and fundraising edge—$356,000 cash on hand versus GOP nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $30,000 as of late March—following withdrawals by other Republicans. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents in such strongholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNM-01 House Election Winner
NM-01 House Election Winner
$20,110 KL.
$20,110 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
7%
$20,110 KL.
$20,110 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,731 KL.
91%
Republican Party
$10,379 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury runs unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+7, where she won 56% in 2024 against Republican Steve Jones. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats stems from the district's consistent double-digit Democratic margins since 2020, Stansbury's incumbency advantage, and fundraising edge—$356,000 cash on hand versus GOP nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $30,000 as of late March—following withdrawals by other Republicans. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents in such strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$20,110Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury runs unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+7, where she won 56% in 2024 against Republican Steve Jones. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats stems from the district's consistent double-digit Democratic margins since 2020, Stansbury's incumbency advantage, and fundraising edge—$356,000 cash on hand versus GOP nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $30,000 as of late March—following withdrawals by other Republicans. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents in such strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$20,110Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury runs unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+7, where she won 56% in 2024 against Republican Steve Jones. Trader consensus at 90.5% for Democrats stems from the district's consistent double-digit Democratic margins since 2020, Stansbury's incumbency advantage, and fundraising edge—$356,000 cash on hand versus GOP nominee Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $30,000 as of late March—following withdrawals by other Republicans. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Stansbury scandal, or depressed Democratic turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents in such strongholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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