Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's unopposed Democratic primary path and commanding fundraising lead—over $1 million raised versus challenger Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $53,000—bolster trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic hold in the D+7 leaning New Mexico 1st Congressional District. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting Stansbury's consistent general election margins above 12% in 2022 and 2024 amid a thinned Republican field after prior challengers withdrew. With the June 2 primary approaching, odds could shift via a surprise GOP recruit, national Republican midterm momentum, or unforeseen incumbent scandal, though structural advantages favor continuity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNM-01 House Election Winner
NM-01 House Election Winner
$20,010 KL.
$20,010 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$20,010 KL.
$20,010 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,631 KL.
92%
Republican Party
$10,379 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's unopposed Democratic primary path and commanding fundraising lead—over $1 million raised versus challenger Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $53,000—bolster trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic hold in the D+7 leaning New Mexico 1st Congressional District. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting Stansbury's consistent general election margins above 12% in 2022 and 2024 amid a thinned Republican field after prior challengers withdrew. With the June 2 primary approaching, odds could shift via a surprise GOP recruit, national Republican midterm momentum, or unforeseen incumbent scandal, though structural advantages favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$20,010Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's unopposed Democratic primary path and commanding fundraising lead—over $1 million raised versus challenger Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $53,000—bolster trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic hold in the D+7 leaning New Mexico 1st Congressional District. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting Stansbury's consistent general election margins above 12% in 2022 and 2024 amid a thinned Republican field after prior challengers withdrew. With the June 2 primary approaching, odds could shift via a surprise GOP recruit, national Republican midterm momentum, or unforeseen incumbent scandal, though structural advantages favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$20,010Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Melanie Stansbury's unopposed Democratic primary path and commanding fundraising lead—over $1 million raised versus challenger Ndidiamaka Okpareke's $53,000—bolster trader consensus at 92% for a Democratic hold in the D+7 leaning New Mexico 1st Congressional District. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, reflecting Stansbury's consistent general election margins above 12% in 2022 and 2024 amid a thinned Republican field after prior challengers withdrew. With the June 2 primary approaching, odds could shift via a surprise GOP recruit, national Republican midterm momentum, or unforeseen incumbent scandal, though structural advantages favor continuity.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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