Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party retaining New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District, reflecting incumbent Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández's entrenched advantage in this safe Democratic seat with a strong partisan lean. Leger Fernández, who secured double-digit margins in prior cycles, benefits from substantial fundraising leads over challengers and recent endorsements from AFT New Mexico (April 16) and CHC BOLD PAC, bolstering her primary position ahead of the June 2 contest. Republican state Rep. Martin Zamora filed his bid in September 2025, but district fundamentals and historical incumbency rates favor Democrats decisively, barring a national midterm wave or unforeseen scandal. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Democratic.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNM-03 House Election Winner
NM-03 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
11%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 KL.
90%
Republican Party
$0 KL.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party retaining New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District, reflecting incumbent Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández's entrenched advantage in this safe Democratic seat with a strong partisan lean. Leger Fernández, who secured double-digit margins in prior cycles, benefits from substantial fundraising leads over challengers and recent endorsements from AFT New Mexico (April 16) and CHC BOLD PAC, bolstering her primary position ahead of the June 2 contest. Republican state Rep. Martin Zamora filed his bid in September 2025, but district fundamentals and historical incumbency rates favor Democrats decisively, barring a national midterm wave or unforeseen scandal. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party retaining New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District, reflecting incumbent Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández's entrenched advantage in this safe Democratic seat with a strong partisan lean. Leger Fernández, who secured double-digit margins in prior cycles, benefits from substantial fundraising leads over challengers and recent endorsements from AFT New Mexico (April 16) and CHC BOLD PAC, bolstering her primary position ahead of the June 2 contest. Republican state Rep. Martin Zamora filed his bid in September 2025, but district fundamentals and historical incumbency rates favor Democrats decisively, barring a national midterm wave or unforeseen scandal. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns an 89.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party retaining New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District, reflecting incumbent Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández's entrenched advantage in this safe Democratic seat with a strong partisan lean. Leger Fernández, who secured double-digit margins in prior cycles, benefits from substantial fundraising leads over challengers and recent endorsements from AFT New Mexico (April 16) and CHC BOLD PAC, bolstering her primary position ahead of the June 2 contest. Republican state Rep. Martin Zamora filed his bid in September 2025, but district fundamentals and historical incumbency rates favor Democrats decisively, barring a national midterm wave or unforeseen scandal. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Democratic.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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