Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding 69% implied probability on Polymarket as the trader-favored Democratic nominee for Missouri's 1st Congressional District primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his decisive 2024 primary upset over Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in the St. Louis-anchored, heavily Democratic district. Bush, mounting a comeback after filing by the March 31 deadline, gained modest attention from a February HIT Strategies poll commissioned by her campaign showing a statistical tie (Bell 44%, Bush within margin of error), but traders remain skeptical of the internal survey amid Bell's superior fundraising from establishment donors and pro-Israel PACs that previously ousted her. Historical primary win rates for House incumbents exceed 90%, underscoring the uphill path for challengers absent major scandals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
Wesley Bell
69%
Cori Bush
31%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
Wesley Bell
$3,073 KL.
69%
Cori Bush
$2,474 KL.
31%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding 69% implied probability on Polymarket as the trader-favored Democratic nominee for Missouri's 1st Congressional District primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his decisive 2024 primary upset over Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in the St. Louis-anchored, heavily Democratic district. Bush, mounting a comeback after filing by the March 31 deadline, gained modest attention from a February HIT Strategies poll commissioned by her campaign showing a statistical tie (Bell 44%, Bush within margin of error), but traders remain skeptical of the internal survey amid Bell's superior fundraising from establishment donors and pro-Israel PACs that previously ousted her. Historical primary win rates for House incumbents exceed 90%, underscoring the uphill path for challengers absent major scandals.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,547Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding 69% implied probability on Polymarket as the trader-favored Democratic nominee for Missouri's 1st Congressional District primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his decisive 2024 primary upset over Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in the St. Louis-anchored, heavily Democratic district. Bush, mounting a comeback after filing by the March 31 deadline, gained modest attention from a February HIT Strategies poll commissioned by her campaign showing a statistical tie (Bell 44%, Bush within margin of error), but traders remain skeptical of the internal survey amid Bell's superior fundraising from establishment donors and pro-Israel PACs that previously ousted her. Historical primary win rates for House incumbents exceed 90%, underscoring the uphill path for challengers absent major scandals.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Khối lượng
$5,547Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell holds a commanding 69% implied probability on Polymarket as the trader-favored Democratic nominee for Missouri's 1st Congressional District primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his decisive 2024 primary upset over Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in the St. Louis-anchored, heavily Democratic district. Bush, mounting a comeback after filing by the March 31 deadline, gained modest attention from a February HIT Strategies poll commissioned by her campaign showing a statistical tie (Bell 44%, Bush within margin of error), but traders remain skeptical of the internal survey amid Bell's superior fundraising from establishment donors and pro-Israel PACs that previously ousted her. Historical primary win rates for House incumbents exceed 90%, underscoring the uphill path for challengers absent major scandals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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