Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025 and February 2026 inflicted severe damage to enrichment infrastructure, burying or rendering inaccessible much of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and limiting IAEA inspector access. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 place Iran's timeline for producing a nuclear weapon at nine to twelve months, with other evaluations indicating longer delays from supply-chain bottlenecks and reconstruction challenges. No verified evidence exists of a structured weaponization effort or preparations for an explosive test. These setbacks underpin trader consensus favoring "No," though renewed diplomatic isolation, covert rebuilding, or external assistance could still shift the outlook before the end of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$202,342 KL.
$202,342 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$202,342 KL.
$202,342 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025 and February 2026 inflicted severe damage to enrichment infrastructure, burying or rendering inaccessible much of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and limiting IAEA inspector access. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 place Iran's timeline for producing a nuclear weapon at nine to twelve months, with other evaluations indicating longer delays from supply-chain bottlenecks and reconstruction challenges. No verified evidence exists of a structured weaponization effort or preparations for an explosive test. These setbacks underpin trader consensus favoring "No," though renewed diplomatic isolation, covert rebuilding, or external assistance could still shift the outlook before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$202,342Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025 and February 2026 inflicted severe damage to enrichment infrastructure, burying or rendering inaccessible much of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and limiting IAEA inspector access. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 place Iran's timeline for producing a nuclear weapon at nine to twelve months, with other evaluations indicating longer delays from supply-chain bottlenecks and reconstruction challenges. No verified evidence exists of a structured weaponization effort or preparations for an explosive test. These setbacks underpin trader consensus favoring "No," though renewed diplomatic isolation, covert rebuilding, or external assistance could still shift the outlook before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$202,342Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025 and February 2026 inflicted severe damage to enrichment infrastructure, burying or rendering inaccessible much of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and limiting IAEA inspector access. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 place Iran's timeline for producing a nuclear weapon at nine to twelve months, with other evaluations indicating longer delays from supply-chain bottlenecks and reconstruction challenges. No verified evidence exists of a structured weaponization effort or preparations for an explosive test. These setbacks underpin trader consensus favoring "No," though renewed diplomatic isolation, covert rebuilding, or external assistance could still shift the outlook before the end of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp