Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 that severely damaged key enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow, setting back the program by years according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. The IAEA's February 2026 report confirmed Iran's pre-strike stockpile of 440kg of 60% enriched uranium but noted no evidence of weaponization, with Tehran denying access to bombed sites amid ongoing verification disputes. Recent April diplomatic pushes for a nuclear peace deal, including IAEA inspections as a condition to end hostilities, further reduce escalation risks, though retrieval of hidden uranium or covert advances could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$171,057 KL.
$171,057 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$171,057 KL.
$171,057 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 that severely damaged key enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow, setting back the program by years according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. The IAEA's February 2026 report confirmed Iran's pre-strike stockpile of 440kg of 60% enriched uranium but noted no evidence of weaponization, with Tehran denying access to bombed sites amid ongoing verification disputes. Recent April diplomatic pushes for a nuclear peace deal, including IAEA inspections as a condition to end hostilities, further reduce escalation risks, though retrieval of hidden uranium or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$171,057Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 that severely damaged key enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow, setting back the program by years according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. The IAEA's February 2026 report confirmed Iran's pre-strike stockpile of 440kg of 60% enriched uranium but noted no evidence of weaponization, with Tehran denying access to bombed sites amid ongoing verification disputes. Recent April diplomatic pushes for a nuclear peace deal, including IAEA inspections as a condition to end hostilities, further reduce escalation risks, though retrieval of hidden uranium or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$171,057Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, driven by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 that severely damaged key enrichment facilities like Natanz and Fordow, setting back the program by years according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. The IAEA's February 2026 report confirmed Iran's pre-strike stockpile of 440kg of 60% enriched uranium but noted no evidence of weaponization, with Tehran denying access to bombed sites amid ongoing verification disputes. Recent April diplomatic pushes for a nuclear peace deal, including IAEA inspections as a condition to end hostilities, further reduce escalation risks, though retrieval of hidden uranium or covert advances could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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