Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by May 2026 US intelligence assessments showing limited new damage from US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 facility, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to even produce fissile material for a bomb. IAEA February reports confirm monitoring access to unaffected facilities with no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, dismissing recent seismic events like the May 13 Tehran earthquake as natural. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, amid sanctions and war de-escalation signals, further diminish incentives for provocative testing, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert advances could alter trajectories.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$191,777 KL.
$191,777 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$191,777 KL.
$191,777 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by May 2026 US intelligence assessments showing limited new damage from US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 facility, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to even produce fissile material for a bomb. IAEA February reports confirm monitoring access to unaffected facilities with no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, dismissing recent seismic events like the May 13 Tehran earthquake as natural. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, amid sanctions and war de-escalation signals, further diminish incentives for provocative testing, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert advances could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$191,777Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by May 2026 US intelligence assessments showing limited new damage from US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 facility, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to even produce fissile material for a bomb. IAEA February reports confirm monitoring access to unaffected facilities with no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, dismissing recent seismic events like the May 13 Tehran earthquake as natural. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, amid sanctions and war de-escalation signals, further diminish incentives for provocative testing, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert advances could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$191,777Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by May 2026 US intelligence assessments showing limited new damage from US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and the Taleghan-2 facility, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to even produce fissile material for a bomb. IAEA February reports confirm monitoring access to unaffected facilities with no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, dismissing recent seismic events like the May 13 Tehran earthquake as natural. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, amid sanctions and war de-escalation signals, further diminish incentives for provocative testing, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or covert advances could alter trajectories.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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