Traders assign a 96.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 due to infrastructure damage from the March 2026 Israeli strike on the Minzadayi site, where satellite imagery through early October shows only cleanup, earth-moving, and resumed vehicle traffic rather than operational readiness for explosive testing. Ongoing IAEA monitoring, U.S.-Iran talks on uranium dilution, and sanctions pressure limit rapid reconstitution of weapons-related work. Missile tests continue but remain separate from nuclear device detonations. A test remains possible if reconstruction accelerates undetected or regional tensions escalate sharply, yet the short timeline to year-end and verifiable setbacks make such an outcome highly improbable under current conditions.