Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader in early March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes that began February 28. Since then he has issued only written statements, including on Gulf security issues, without any verified public appearance, video, or audio address. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reported a private multi-hour meeting in early May, yet persistent health rumors and lack of direct visibility continue to shape trader assessments of his de facto authority. The market focuses on whether an in-person or broadcast appearance occurs by the resolution date amid wartime conditions, internal elite dynamics, and the Assembly’s procedural role in leadership transitions. Any confirmed sighting or official event within the window would resolve the market, while ongoing absence reinforces uncertainty tied to health or security constraints.