US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative October 2026 agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days while launching fresh talks focused first on the fate of Iran’s roughly 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, much of which is believed to remain buried at damaged or tunnel sites after 2025–2026 US-Israeli strikes. Washington, led by the Trump administration and Vice President JD Vance, insists on a meaningful cut in enrichment capacity and resolution of the stockpile before ending the conflict, while Tehran conditions any concessions on full sanctions relief and has floated third-party custody options. No verified transfer or US possession has occurred, IAEA access remains limited, and actual physical custody—rather than announced plans—determines market resolution. Upcoming negotiation rounds and any verified stockpile movement will be the key near-term catalysts.