The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since Pakistan-brokered talks on April 8, 2026, has held amid repeated violations, including limited exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz during early May. President Trump extended the truce indefinitely pending a comprehensive Iranian proposal, while ordering a naval blockade and briefly pausing planned strikes after Gulf allies intervened. Stalled negotiations center on Hormuz access, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and demands for sanctions relief, with both sides rejecting recent counteroffers and accusing the other of bad faith. Separate Lebanon arrangements have reduced cross-border activity, yet Iranian parliamentary statements and threats of renewed action keep the arrangement on uncertain footing. Traders monitor these diplomatic signals and any new proposals for signs the ceasefire might break before scheduled resolution windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
$570,475 KL.
May 20
98%
May 21
96%
May 22
88%
May 24
78%
May 27
69%
May 31
67%
June 7
58%
June 15
53%
June 30
49%
July 31
45%
December 31
37%
$570,475 KL.
May 20
$141,688 KL.
98%
May 21
$150,877 KL.
96%
May 22
$100,460 KL.
88%
May 24
$95,015 KL.
78%
May 27
$36,996 KL.
69%
May 31
$46,504 KL.
67%
June 7
$13,330 KL.
58%
June 15
$11,973 KL.
53%
June 30
$15,686 KL.
49%
July 31
$7,670 KL.
45%
December 31
$24,228 KL.
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since Pakistan-brokered talks on April 8, 2026, has held amid repeated violations, including limited exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz during early May. President Trump extended the truce indefinitely pending a comprehensive Iranian proposal, while ordering a naval blockade and briefly pausing planned strikes after Gulf allies intervened. Stalled negotiations center on Hormuz access, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and demands for sanctions relief, with both sides rejecting recent counteroffers and accusing the other of bad faith. Separate Lebanon arrangements have reduced cross-border activity, yet Iranian parliamentary statements and threats of renewed action keep the arrangement on uncertain footing. Traders monitor these diplomatic signals and any new proposals for signs the ceasefire might break before scheduled resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Khối lượng
$570,475Thị trường mở
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since Pakistan-brokered talks on April 8, 2026, has held amid repeated violations, including limited exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz during early May. President Trump extended the truce indefinitely pending a comprehensive Iranian proposal, while ordering a naval blockade and briefly pausing planned strikes after Gulf allies intervened. Stalled negotiations center on Hormuz access, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and demands for sanctions relief, with both sides rejecting recent counteroffers and accusing the other of bad faith. Separate Lebanon arrangements have reduced cross-border activity, yet Iranian parliamentary statements and threats of renewed action keep the arrangement on uncertain footing. Traders monitor these diplomatic signals and any new proposals for signs the ceasefire might break before scheduled resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$570,475Thị trường mở
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since Pakistan-brokered talks on April 8, 2026, has held amid repeated violations, including limited exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz during early May. President Trump extended the truce indefinitely pending a comprehensive Iranian proposal, while ordering a naval blockade and briefly pausing planned strikes after Gulf allies intervened. Stalled negotiations center on Hormuz access, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and demands for sanctions relief, with both sides rejecting recent counteroffers and accusing the other of bad faith. Separate Lebanon arrangements have reduced cross-border activity, yet Iranian parliamentary statements and threats of renewed action keep the arrangement on uncertain footing. Traders monitor these diplomatic signals and any new proposals for signs the ceasefire might break before scheduled resolution windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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