US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland, which produced a short-lived roadmap on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and Lebanon deconfliction but quickly unraveled amid mutual accusations of violations. As of late August, the White House has stated that no negotiations are underway, with Washington instead emphasizing economic pressure measures while retaining military options and insisting on verifiable limits to Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran has signaled openness to renewed talks only if prior commitments are honored and pressure ends, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan continuing back-channel efforts focused on shipping lanes and confidence-building. These dynamics, alongside the absence of confirmed high-level meetings since June, shape trader assessments of prospects for any round of peace talks by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$422,813 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
32%
J.D. Vance
25%
Jared Kushner
21%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
18%
Nick Stewart
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Abbas Araghchi
17%
Ishaq Dar
17%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Kazem Gharibabadi
16%
Mohammed bin Salman
12%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
11%
Rafael Grossi
11%
Masoud Pezeshkian
10%
Marco Rubio
7%
Esmail Qaani
6%
Donald Trump
6%
Pete Hegseth
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
3%
$422,813 KL.
Steve Witkoff
$28,713 KL.
32%
J.D. Vance
$27,350 KL.
25%
Jared Kushner
$29,433 KL.
21%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$18,900 KL.
18%
Nick Stewart
$12,950 KL.
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$17,270 KL.
18%
Abbas Araghchi
$16,293 KL.
17%
Ishaq Dar
$23,518 KL.
17%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$31,079 KL.
17%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$19,029 KL.
16%
Mohammed bin Salman
$5,526 KL.
12%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$40,153 KL.
11%
Rafael Grossi
$36,253 KL.
11%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$24,252 KL.
10%
Marco Rubio
$13,733 KL.
7%
Esmail Qaani
$11,490 KL.
6%
Donald Trump
$9,179 KL.
6%
Pete Hegseth
$20,123 KL.
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
$14,361 KL.
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$23,208 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland, which produced a short-lived roadmap on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and Lebanon deconfliction but quickly unraveled amid mutual accusations of violations. As of late August, the White House has stated that no negotiations are underway, with Washington instead emphasizing economic pressure measures while retaining military options and insisting on verifiable limits to Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran has signaled openness to renewed talks only if prior commitments are honored and pressure ends, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan continuing back-channel efforts focused on shipping lanes and confidence-building. These dynamics, alongside the absence of confirmed high-level meetings since June, shape trader assessments of prospects for any round of peace talks by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$422,813Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland, which produced a short-lived roadmap on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and Lebanon deconfliction but quickly unraveled amid mutual accusations of violations. As of late August, the White House has stated that no negotiations are underway, with Washington instead emphasizing economic pressure measures while retaining military options and insisting on verifiable limits to Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran has signaled openness to renewed talks only if prior commitments are honored and pressure ends, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan continuing back-channel efforts focused on shipping lanes and confidence-building. These dynamics, alongside the absence of confirmed high-level meetings since June, shape trader assessments of prospects for any round of peace talks by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$422,813Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland, which produced a short-lived roadmap on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and Lebanon deconfliction but quickly unraveled amid mutual accusations of violations. As of late August, the White House has stated that no negotiations are underway, with Washington instead emphasizing economic pressure measures while retaining military options and insisting on verifiable limits to Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran has signaled openness to renewed talks only if prior commitments are honored and pressure ends, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan continuing back-channel efforts focused on shipping lanes and confidence-building. These dynamics, alongside the absence of confirmed high-level meetings since June, shape trader assessments of prospects for any round of peace talks by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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