The September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%—the first hike since 2023—combined with an updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median year-end rate of 4.1%, has anchored trader expectations for one additional tightening move before year-end. Softer-than-expected August inflation data released late September has since tempered near-term odds, shifting implied paths toward a non-consecutive sequence such as Hike–Pause–Hike at 47.5% while Hike–Hike–Hike holds at 26.0%. With the effective federal funds rate at 3.88% and the October 28 meeting approaching, markets continue to balance resilient growth, 4.1% unemployment, and core PCE near 3.4% against easing price pressures that could support a pause before any December action.