Recent economic data releases, including the August CPI and employment reports, have reinforced trader expectations for a steady policy stance, driving the 30.5% market-implied odds on Pause-Pause-Pause for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings. Persistent uncertainty around inflation moderation versus labor market resilience differentiates the outcomes, with hike sequences priced lower as participants weigh risks of reacceleration in prices against cooling job growth. The Fed funds rate path remains data-dependent, with upcoming September CPI, October employment figures, and Treasury yield movements likely to shift implied probabilities ahead of the December decision. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket reflects this balanced assessment of monetary policy signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPause–Pause–Pause 31%
Hike–Pause–Pause 20%
Hike–Hike–Pause 12%
Hike–Pause–Hike 12%
$12,762 KL.
$12,762 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
12%
Hike–Pause–Pause
20%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
12%
Pause–Pause–Hike
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
31%
Pause–Hike–Hike
3%
Pause–Hike–Pause
8%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 31%
Hike–Pause–Pause 20%
Hike–Hike–Pause 12%
Hike–Pause–Hike 12%
$12,762 KL.
$12,762 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 KL.
12%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$499 KL.
20%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 KL.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 KL.
12%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$468 KL.
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$10,920 KL.
31%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 KL.
3%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 KL.
8%
Other
$249 KL.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases, including the August CPI and employment reports, have reinforced trader expectations for a steady policy stance, driving the 30.5% market-implied odds on Pause-Pause-Pause for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings. Persistent uncertainty around inflation moderation versus labor market resilience differentiates the outcomes, with hike sequences priced lower as participants weigh risks of reacceleration in prices against cooling job growth. The Fed funds rate path remains data-dependent, with upcoming September CPI, October employment figures, and Treasury yield movements likely to shift implied probabilities ahead of the December decision. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket reflects this balanced assessment of monetary policy signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$12,762Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases, including the August CPI and employment reports, have reinforced trader expectations for a steady policy stance, driving the 30.5% market-implied odds on Pause-Pause-Pause for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings. Persistent uncertainty around inflation moderation versus labor market resilience differentiates the outcomes, with hike sequences priced lower as participants weigh risks of reacceleration in prices against cooling job growth. The Fed funds rate path remains data-dependent, with upcoming September CPI, October employment figures, and Treasury yield movements likely to shift implied probabilities ahead of the December decision. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket reflects this balanced assessment of monetary policy signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$12,762Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data releases, including the August CPI and employment reports, have reinforced trader expectations for a steady policy stance, driving the 30.5% market-implied odds on Pause-Pause-Pause for the September, November, and December FOMC meetings. Persistent uncertainty around inflation moderation versus labor market resilience differentiates the outcomes, with hike sequences priced lower as participants weigh risks of reacceleration in prices against cooling job growth. The Fed funds rate path remains data-dependent, with upcoming September CPI, October employment figures, and Treasury yield movements likely to shift implied probabilities ahead of the December decision. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket reflects this balanced assessment of monetary policy signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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