Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions have kept the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75% after the July FOMC decision, where three members dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike. This backdrop has compressed implied probabilities between zero and one 2026 rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on a closely balanced policy path versus official projections showing nine participants expecting at least one hike by year-end. Key swing factors include the September FOMC outcome, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any moderation in core inflation or geopolitical tensions that could alter the market-implied rate trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 14%
3 (75 bps) 4.3%
$138,037 KL.
$138,037 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
45%
1 (25 bps)
35%
2 (50 bps)
14%
3 (75 bps)
4%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 14%
3 (75 bps) 4.3%
$138,037 KL.
$138,037 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,295 KL.
45%
1 (25 bps)
$20,519 KL.
35%
2 (50 bps)
$33,293 KL.
14%
3 (75 bps)
$13,284 KL.
4%
4 (100 bps)
$5,403 KL.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,243 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions have kept the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75% after the July FOMC decision, where three members dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike. This backdrop has compressed implied probabilities between zero and one 2026 rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on a closely balanced policy path versus official projections showing nine participants expecting at least one hike by year-end. Key swing factors include the September FOMC outcome, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any moderation in core inflation or geopolitical tensions that could alter the market-implied rate trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Thị trường mở: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$138,037Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions have kept the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75% after the July FOMC decision, where three members dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike. This backdrop has compressed implied probabilities between zero and one 2026 rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on a closely balanced policy path versus official projections showing nine participants expecting at least one hike by year-end. Key swing factors include the September FOMC outcome, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any moderation in core inflation or geopolitical tensions that could alter the market-implied rate trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Khối lượng
$138,037Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside energy price spikes from Middle East supply disruptions have kept the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75% after the July FOMC decision, where three members dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike. This backdrop has compressed implied probabilities between zero and one 2026 rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on a closely balanced policy path versus official projections showing nine participants expecting at least one hike by year-end. Key swing factors include the September FOMC outcome, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any moderation in core inflation or geopolitical tensions that could alter the market-implied rate trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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