Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% annual headline inflation—well above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy and gasoline surges—has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy into year-end. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report adding 162,000 nonfarm payrolls and holding unemployment at 4.1% further supports the case for a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting, where market-implied odds currently stand at 56.5%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and institutions like UBS and MUFG, which project hikes in September and December, have shifted sentiment away from cuts or steady rates. With the September 15-16 FOMC decision approaching and inflation data remaining elevated, these factors anchor the 56.5% probability for a December increase over the 39.5% no-change outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$679,882 KL.
$679,882 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$679,882 KL.
$679,882 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$101,501 KL.
1%
25 bps decrease
$153,831 KL.
3%
No change
$134,737 KL.
40%
25 bps increase
$186,583 KL.
56%
50+ bps increase
$103,230 KL.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% annual headline inflation—well above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy and gasoline surges—has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy into year-end. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report adding 162,000 nonfarm payrolls and holding unemployment at 4.1% further supports the case for a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting, where market-implied odds currently stand at 56.5%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and institutions like UBS and MUFG, which project hikes in September and December, have shifted sentiment away from cuts or steady rates. With the September 15-16 FOMC decision approaching and inflation data remaining elevated, these factors anchor the 56.5% probability for a December increase over the 39.5% no-change outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$679,882Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% annual headline inflation—well above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy and gasoline surges—has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy into year-end. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report adding 162,000 nonfarm payrolls and holding unemployment at 4.1% further supports the case for a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting, where market-implied odds currently stand at 56.5%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and institutions like UBS and MUFG, which project hikes in September and December, have shifted sentiment away from cuts or steady rates. With the September 15-16 FOMC decision approaching and inflation data remaining elevated, these factors anchor the 56.5% probability for a December increase over the 39.5% no-change outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$679,882Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% annual headline inflation—well above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy and gasoline surges—has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy into year-end. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report adding 162,000 nonfarm payrolls and holding unemployment at 4.1% further supports the case for a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting, where market-implied odds currently stand at 56.5%. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and institutions like UBS and MUFG, which project hikes in September and December, have shifted sentiment away from cuts or steady rates. With the September 15-16 FOMC decision approaching and inflation data remaining elevated, these factors anchor the 56.5% probability for a December increase over the 39.5% no-change outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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