Recent softer-than-expected August PCE inflation data, showing a 3.4% year-over-year rise versus 3.7% forecasts, has lowered the implied probability of an October 27–28 FOMC hike to roughly 15–16%, favoring a pause. Persistent price pressures above the 2% target, combined with the Fed’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate to 3.75–4.00% and its dot-plot signal for additional tightening, underpin expectations for a December 8–9 hike. The January 26–27, 2027 meeting carries lower hike odds amid incoming data including the September CPI release on October 14 and labor reports. Trader consensus on platforms like Polymarket reflects this path-dependent outlook, with Pause-Hike-Pause as the leading sequence amid balanced labor-market conditions and upside inflation risks.