The Supreme Court’s June 2026 5-4 ruling remains the central factor shaping trader views on Lisa Cook’s status as a Federal Reserve governor, requiring the Trump administration to demonstrate “for cause” under the Federal Reserve Act and provide due process before any removal attempt can proceed. The decision preserved the central bank’s traditional insulation from at-will presidential action while sending the mortgage-fraud allegations back to lower courts for factual review, leaving Cook in place with her term running through 2038. Market-implied odds reflect the procedural hurdles and ongoing litigation, with traders pricing in limited near-term probability of an official exit absent new court developments or a successful renewed filing. Key upcoming catalysts include any administration motion to restart the process and lower-court rulings on the underlying claims, both of which could shift implied probabilities if they clarify the scope of presidential authority over the Board.