Turkey’s constitution establishes Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term through 2028, with the next scheduled election no later than May 2028 and no national vote, impeachment process, or formal removal mechanism in place before the end of 2026. Recent months have seen continued consolidation of ruling-party influence through judicial actions targeting opposition figures, including the May 2026 removal of the main opposition CHP leader, alongside unconfirmed health speculation that has not produced any verified incapacity or transition signals. Trader consensus on the low probability of departure by December 31, 2026, aligns with these fixed institutional timelines and the absence of sudden political, legal, or personal developments that would compel an earlier exit. Only unforeseen events such as acute health crises or major scandals could alter this positioning before year-end.