Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, anchored by Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman's May 11 disclosure that a successor remains at least two years out amid paused development and team reassignments to lighter AR smart glasses. Disappointing sales of the original Vision Pro—under 500,000 units shipped since early 2024—have tempered urgency, with Apple prioritizing visionOS app ecosystem expansion over new hardware amid competitive pressures from Meta's Quest lineup. Earlier rumors of a 2025-2026 launch fizzled without production signals or announcements, aligning with Apple's deliberate spatial computing cadence. While a surprise WWDC reveal or supply chain acceleration could challenge this, traders discount such catalysts given the firm's pivot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, anchored by Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman's May 11 disclosure that a successor remains at least two years out amid paused development and team reassignments to lighter AR smart glasses. Disappointing sales of the original Vision Pro—under 500,000 units shipped since early 2024—have tempered urgency, with Apple prioritizing visionOS app ecosystem expansion over new hardware amid competitive pressures from Meta's Quest lineup. Earlier rumors of a 2025-2026 launch fizzled without production signals or announcements, aligning with Apple's deliberate spatial computing cadence. While a surprise WWDC reveal or supply chain acceleration could challenge this, traders discount such catalysts given the firm's pivot.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,466Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, anchored by Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman's May 11 disclosure that a successor remains at least two years out amid paused development and team reassignments to lighter AR smart glasses. Disappointing sales of the original Vision Pro—under 500,000 units shipped since early 2024—have tempered urgency, with Apple prioritizing visionOS app ecosystem expansion over new hardware amid competitive pressures from Meta's Quest lineup. Earlier rumors of a 2025-2026 launch fizzled without production signals or announcements, aligning with Apple's deliberate spatial computing cadence. While a surprise WWDC reveal or supply chain acceleration could challenge this, traders discount such catalysts given the firm's pivot.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$4,466Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, anchored by Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman's May 11 disclosure that a successor remains at least two years out amid paused development and team reassignments to lighter AR smart glasses. Disappointing sales of the original Vision Pro—under 500,000 units shipped since early 2024—have tempered urgency, with Apple prioritizing visionOS app ecosystem expansion over new hardware amid competitive pressures from Meta's Quest lineup. Earlier rumors of a 2025-2026 launch fizzled without production signals or announcements, aligning with Apple's deliberate spatial computing cadence. While a surprise WWDC reveal or supply chain acceleration could challenge this, traders discount such catalysts given the firm's pivot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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