xAI's aggressive scaling of its Grok large language models continues to shape trader expectations around a potential Grok 4.4 release. Following the May 5 rollout of Grok 4.3—which added a 1-million-token context window, stronger agentic tool calling, and top rankings on enterprise benchmarks—Elon Musk noted on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation model has completed training. Supplemental training with Cursor data, followed by supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, should wrap in roughly three to four weeks. This positions a major update, likely aligned with the previously signaled 1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.4, for a mid-June window. Competitive pressure from rapid iteration at rival labs and xAI's expanding Colossus cluster add urgency, though historical timeline slippage remains a key uncertainty for resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
49%
June 15
49%
June 30
50%
$20 KL.
May 31
$20 KL.
49%
June 15
$0 KL.
49%
June 30
$0 KL.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's aggressive scaling of its Grok large language models continues to shape trader expectations around a potential Grok 4.4 release. Following the May 5 rollout of Grok 4.3—which added a 1-million-token context window, stronger agentic tool calling, and top rankings on enterprise benchmarks—Elon Musk noted on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation model has completed training. Supplemental training with Cursor data, followed by supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, should wrap in roughly three to four weeks. This positions a major update, likely aligned with the previously signaled 1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.4, for a mid-June window. Competitive pressure from rapid iteration at rival labs and xAI's expanding Colossus cluster add urgency, though historical timeline slippage remains a key uncertainty for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's aggressive scaling of its Grok large language models continues to shape trader expectations around a potential Grok 4.4 release. Following the May 5 rollout of Grok 4.3—which added a 1-million-token context window, stronger agentic tool calling, and top rankings on enterprise benchmarks—Elon Musk noted on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation model has completed training. Supplemental training with Cursor data, followed by supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, should wrap in roughly three to four weeks. This positions a major update, likely aligned with the previously signaled 1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.4, for a mid-June window. Competitive pressure from rapid iteration at rival labs and xAI's expanding Colossus cluster add urgency, though historical timeline slippage remains a key uncertainty for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$20Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's aggressive scaling of its Grok large language models continues to shape trader expectations around a potential Grok 4.4 release. Following the May 5 rollout of Grok 4.3—which added a 1-million-token context window, stronger agentic tool calling, and top rankings on enterprise benchmarks—Elon Musk noted on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation model has completed training. Supplemental training with Cursor data, followed by supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, should wrap in roughly three to four weeks. This positions a major update, likely aligned with the previously signaled 1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.4, for a mid-June window. Competitive pressure from rapid iteration at rival labs and xAI's expanding Colossus cluster add urgency, though historical timeline slippage remains a key uncertainty for resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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