Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5, have locked in multiple top-three leaderboard positions across intelligence indices, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, and agentic tasks as of mid-June 2026. These models demonstrate consistent strengths in instruction-following and style control that align with the market’s specific criteria, outpacing incremental updates from OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini variants. With resolution just days away and no confirmed frontier drops scheduled before June 30, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s entrenched positioning. A surprise late-month release or benchmark recalibration from Google or OpenAI remains the primary risk that could reorder the standings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$70,394 KL.
$70,394 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
No
Alibaba
No
ByteDance
No
Moonshot
No
Z.ai
No
DeepSeek
No
Meta
No
Anthropic
Yes
OpenAI
No
xAI
No
Baidu
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Microsoft
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
ByteDance <1%
$70,394 KL.
$70,394 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$10,193 KL.
No
Alibaba
$1,907 KL.
No
ByteDance
$1,224 KL.
No
Moonshot
$2,728 KL.
No
Z.ai
$2,854 KL.
No
DeepSeek
$3,286 KL.
No
Meta
$5,429 KL.
No
Anthropic
$24,305 KL.
Yes
OpenAI
$5,691 KL.
No
xAI
$2,895 KL.
No
Baidu
$1,850 KL.
No
Amazon
$3,174 KL.
No
Mistral
$2,022 KL.
No
Meituan
$1,022 KL.
No
Microsoft
$1,814 KL.
No
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5, have locked in multiple top-three leaderboard positions across intelligence indices, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, and agentic tasks as of mid-June 2026. These models demonstrate consistent strengths in instruction-following and style control that align with the market’s specific criteria, outpacing incremental updates from OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini variants. With resolution just days away and no confirmed frontier drops scheduled before June 30, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s entrenched positioning. A surprise late-month release or benchmark recalibration from Google or OpenAI remains the primary risk that could reorder the standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$70,394Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5, have locked in multiple top-three leaderboard positions across intelligence indices, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, and agentic tasks as of mid-June 2026. These models demonstrate consistent strengths in instruction-following and style control that align with the market’s specific criteria, outpacing incremental updates from OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini variants. With resolution just days away and no confirmed frontier drops scheduled before June 30, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s entrenched positioning. A surprise late-month release or benchmark recalibration from Google or OpenAI remains the primary risk that could reorder the standings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$70,394Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5, have locked in multiple top-three leaderboard positions across intelligence indices, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, and agentic tasks as of mid-June 2026. These models demonstrate consistent strengths in instruction-following and style control that align with the market’s specific criteria, outpacing incremental updates from OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini variants. With resolution just days away and no confirmed frontier drops scheduled before June 30, trader consensus reflects Anthropic’s entrenched positioning. A surprise late-month release or benchmark recalibration from Google or OpenAI remains the primary risk that could reorder the standings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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