Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in the competitive New Mexico 2nd District, rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by major forecasters with an even Cook Partisan Voter Index. A late-April NRCC internal survey showed Vasquez and Republican Greg Cunningham statistically tied at 43-41 percent among likely voters, reflecting the seat's swing character after Vasquez's narrow 2024 reelection. Cunningham, backed by a Trump endorsement and national Republican support, benefits from the district's independent voters and recent generic ballot parity, though Vasquez maintains a substantial fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus assigns Democrats the higher implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election due to incumbency and historical patterns in this battleground.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNM-02 House Election Winner
NM-02 House Election Winner
$17,522 Обс.
$17,522 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
15%
Democratic Party
56%
$17,522 Обс.
$17,522 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$16,027 Обс.
15%
Democratic Party
$1,496 Обс.
56%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in the competitive New Mexico 2nd District, rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by major forecasters with an even Cook Partisan Voter Index. A late-April NRCC internal survey showed Vasquez and Republican Greg Cunningham statistically tied at 43-41 percent among likely voters, reflecting the seat's swing character after Vasquez's narrow 2024 reelection. Cunningham, backed by a Trump endorsement and national Republican support, benefits from the district's independent voters and recent generic ballot parity, though Vasquez maintains a substantial fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus assigns Democrats the higher implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election due to incumbency and historical patterns in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$17,522Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in the competitive New Mexico 2nd District, rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by major forecasters with an even Cook Partisan Voter Index. A late-April NRCC internal survey showed Vasquez and Republican Greg Cunningham statistically tied at 43-41 percent among likely voters, reflecting the seat's swing character after Vasquez's narrow 2024 reelection. Cunningham, backed by a Trump endorsement and national Republican support, benefits from the district's independent voters and recent generic ballot parity, though Vasquez maintains a substantial fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus assigns Democrats the higher implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election due to incumbency and historical patterns in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$17,522Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez seeks a third term in the competitive New Mexico 2nd District, rated Lean or Tilt Democratic by major forecasters with an even Cook Partisan Voter Index. A late-April NRCC internal survey showed Vasquez and Republican Greg Cunningham statistically tied at 43-41 percent among likely voters, reflecting the seat's swing character after Vasquez's narrow 2024 reelection. Cunningham, backed by a Trump endorsement and national Republican support, benefits from the district's independent voters and recent generic ballot parity, though Vasquez maintains a substantial fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 primaries. Trader consensus assigns Democrats the higher implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election due to incumbency and historical patterns in this battleground.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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