Mary Peltola holds a narrow but expanding lead in first-choice votes over incumbent Dan Sullivan following the November 3 election, with results showing her near 49 percent to his 47.2 percent as absentee and questioned ballots continue to be counted. Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, under which third- and fourth-place candidates will be eliminated and preferences redistributed, underpins trader consensus around her position. Peltola's strength in Anchorage and other population centers, combined with the modest margins and typical second-choice patterns in prior Alaska RCV contests, shapes current implied probabilities. Full tabulation is scheduled to begin around November 18, with certification expected later. Remaining uncounted ballots or unexpected redistribution shifts remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome.