Mary Peltola holds a narrow first-choice lead of roughly 0.3 points in the November 3 Alaska Senate election after 74 percent of ballots are counted, placing her just ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan with both below the 50 percent threshold that would avoid ranked-choice voting. Traders assign her a commanding position because the remaining absentee and mail ballots plus expected second- and third-choice transfers from minor Republican and independent candidates are viewed as likely to favor her in the RCV tabulation that will decide the seat. The race remains subject to final vote certification, potential recounts, and any legal challenges tied to the top-four primary or the presence of a similarly named candidate, any of which could still shift the outcome before the market resolves.