Recent August core PCE data printed at 0.2% month-over-month—below the 0.3% consensus—after downward revisions to prior months, easing immediate rate-hike pressure ahead of the October FOMC meeting and supporting trader focus on continued moderation. This outcome, alongside resilient consumer spending and methodology adjustments that lowered year-over-year readings to 3.0%, has narrowed the gap between 0.2% and 0.3% probabilities for September while highlighting sensitivity to services prices and revisions. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether September will sustain the cooler trend or rebound amid firm demand, with the October 29 Bureau of Economic Analysis release serving as the key catalyst. Traders weigh these factors against the Fed’s preferred gauge remaining above its 2% target.