**Recent August core CPI strength at 0.3% MoM, above the 0.2% consensus, has kept trader focus on whether September data will show the anticipated moderation to around 0.2%.** Forecasts from economists, including TD Securities and Continuum Economics, center on a 0.19–0.20% rise as one-off factors like the telephone services surge reverse, services inflation mean-reverts, and supercore eases after August’s 0.51% jump, even as energy-driven gains in airfares and gasoline support headline CPI near 0.5–0.6%. This leaves the 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes nearly tied on Polymarket, reflecting uncertainty over rounding, residual shelter and goods trends, and how much prior volatility persists into the October 14 release. The closely matched pricing underscores the data’s role in shaping near-term Fed rate path expectations amid ongoing inflation monitoring.