Recent inflation data, including June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May with July prints expected near 3.4%, alongside a July unemployment rate at 4.1% and flat-to-negative payrolls, anchor trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its 3.50-3.75% target range through the October 27-28 meeting. Market-implied odds of 67.5% for no change reflect this data trajectory and the FOMC’s recent 9-3 hold decision, while the 24.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike incorporates hawkish signals from new Chair Kevin Warsh and dot-plot projections favoring higher-for-longer policy. Upcoming July and August CPI releases remain key swing factors that could shift the rate path before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$555,647 Обс.
$555,647 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
25%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$555,647 Обс.
$555,647 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$120,821 Обс.
2%
25 bps decrease
$150,039 Обс.
7%
No change
$112,199 Обс.
68%
25 bps increase
$128,159 Обс.
25%
50+ bps increase
$44,429 Обс.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data, including June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May with July prints expected near 3.4%, alongside a July unemployment rate at 4.1% and flat-to-negative payrolls, anchor trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its 3.50-3.75% target range through the October 27-28 meeting. Market-implied odds of 67.5% for no change reflect this data trajectory and the FOMC’s recent 9-3 hold decision, while the 24.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike incorporates hawkish signals from new Chair Kevin Warsh and dot-plot projections favoring higher-for-longer policy. Upcoming July and August CPI releases remain key swing factors that could shift the rate path before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$555,647Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data, including June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May with July prints expected near 3.4%, alongside a July unemployment rate at 4.1% and flat-to-negative payrolls, anchor trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its 3.50-3.75% target range through the October 27-28 meeting. Market-implied odds of 67.5% for no change reflect this data trajectory and the FOMC’s recent 9-3 hold decision, while the 24.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike incorporates hawkish signals from new Chair Kevin Warsh and dot-plot projections favoring higher-for-longer policy. Upcoming July and August CPI releases remain key swing factors that could shift the rate path before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$555,647Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data, including June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May with July prints expected near 3.4%, alongside a July unemployment rate at 4.1% and flat-to-negative payrolls, anchor trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its 3.50-3.75% target range through the October 27-28 meeting. Market-implied odds of 67.5% for no change reflect this data trajectory and the FOMC’s recent 9-3 hold decision, while the 24.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike incorporates hawkish signals from new Chair Kevin Warsh and dot-plot projections favoring higher-for-longer policy. Upcoming July and August CPI releases remain key swing factors that could shift the rate path before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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