Recent U.S. economic releases have created balanced trader sentiment ahead of the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the August employment report showed solid 162,000 job gains and unemployment steady at 4.1%, though wage growth cooled to 3.1%. These figures, alongside earlier 2026 hawkish Fed projections under Chair Warsh and elevated energy prices, have produced near-even implied probabilities for no change versus a 25 basis point hike. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether sticky inflation or moderating labor momentum will dominate the policy reaction function by year-end. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path priced into futures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 45%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 5.8%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
$531,701 Обс.
$531,701 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 45%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 5.8%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
$531,701 Обс.
$531,701 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$84,993 Обс.
1%
25 bps decrease
$135,649 Обс.
6%
No change
$83,772 Обс.
45%
25 bps increase
$138,524 Обс.
44%
50+ bps increase
$88,764 Обс.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic releases have created balanced trader sentiment ahead of the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the August employment report showed solid 162,000 job gains and unemployment steady at 4.1%, though wage growth cooled to 3.1%. These figures, alongside earlier 2026 hawkish Fed projections under Chair Warsh and elevated energy prices, have produced near-even implied probabilities for no change versus a 25 basis point hike. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether sticky inflation or moderating labor momentum will dominate the policy reaction function by year-end. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path priced into futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$531,701Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic releases have created balanced trader sentiment ahead of the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the August employment report showed solid 162,000 job gains and unemployment steady at 4.1%, though wage growth cooled to 3.1%. These figures, alongside earlier 2026 hawkish Fed projections under Chair Warsh and elevated energy prices, have produced near-even implied probabilities for no change versus a 25 basis point hike. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether sticky inflation or moderating labor momentum will dominate the policy reaction function by year-end. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path priced into futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$531,701Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic releases have created balanced trader sentiment ahead of the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI printed at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while the August employment report showed solid 162,000 job gains and unemployment steady at 4.1%, though wage growth cooled to 3.1%. These figures, alongside earlier 2026 hawkish Fed projections under Chair Warsh and elevated energy prices, have produced near-even implied probabilities for no change versus a 25 basis point hike. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether sticky inflation or moderating labor momentum will dominate the policy reaction function by year-end. The August CPI release on September 11 and the September FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path priced into futures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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