Recent soft September jobs data, with only 29,000 payroll gains and unemployment rising to 4.2%, has tempered expectations for an October 27–28 FOMC hike, favoring a pause after the September 25-basis-point increase to the 3.75–4.00% target range. Persistent inflation, with core PCE near 3.4% and headline measures above 3%, continues to support the FOMC’s median dot-plot projection of one additional 2026 tightening, keeping December 8–9 hike odds elevated near 90%. Traders price the Hike–Pause–Hike path highest as data dependence and balanced labor risks reduce near-term urgency while inflation risks remain tilted higher, consistent with recent central bank commentary.