Recent energy price surges, particularly in gasoline, represent the dominant catalyst lifting market-implied odds for September 2026 headline CPI to 3.7% at 43.5% and 3.6% at 42.5%. August’s 3.4% year-over-year print established a base, but consensus forecasts anticipate a 0.6% monthly advance that would push the annual rate to 3.7%, reflecting higher fuel costs amid geopolitical tensions. Core measures are projected to hold near 2.4–2.5%, with moderation in services offset by goods pressures from tariffs and supply chains. The narrow spread between leading outcomes underscores uncertainty over exact energy pass-through and rounding effects ahead of the imminent Bureau of Labor Statistics release, while broader Fed projections and New York Fed consumer surveys signal persistent above-target inflation through year-end.