Recent affirmations by major agencies underpin the 75.5% market-implied probability against an EU downgrade before year-end 2026. Moody’s reaffirmed the bloc’s Aaa rating with a stable outlook in late September 2026, citing joint-and-several support from high-rated members such as Germany and the EU’s direct authority to call on own-resources contributions capped at 2% of GNI. Fitch and Scope maintain AAA ratings with stable outlooks, reflecting resilient fiscal architecture and contained risks from elevated issuance. While country-specific pressures—France’s Aa3 negative outlook ahead of its October 23 review and deficit targets near 5% of GDP—persist, these remain isolated and have not prompted negative watches on the supranational rating. Key near-term catalysts include the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework negotiations and any material deterioration among net contributors.